The invention provides a
power grid photovoltaic output short-term prediction method and
system fused with a meteorological
time sequence, and relates to the technical field of photovoltaic power, and the method comprises the steps: reading multi-source meteorological
observation data of a target region; performing cloud field
motion estimation, and establishing a cloud
motion vector field; activating a temperature corrector, reading environment temperature and photovoltaic module temperature, constructing a temperature-module efficiency dynamic model by utilizing a temperature reading result and
wind speed and
wind direction data of a
weather station, and establishing a power upper limit correction factor; after an illumination disturbance
signal is established by using the cloud
motion vector field, a short-time scale dynamic output prediction curve is generated; and performing
power grid operation constraint mapping adjustment, and outputting a calibration prediction result. According to the method and the device, the technical problem of low photovoltaic output short-term prediction precision caused by
instability and unpredictability due to the fact that
photovoltaic power generation is easily influenced by weather changes in the prior art is solved, and the photovoltaic output prediction precision is improved and the
power grid dispatching and operation are optimized by fusing the meteorological
time sequence.