Real-time prediction calculation method based on measured data for wind power of wind power station

Abstract

The invention discloses a real-time prediction calculation method based on measured data for wind power of a wind power station. The method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: acquiring data: acquiring the output power P<1>1(t) per minute of each windmill unit in the start-up state of the wind power station; processing data: performing power summarization according to the quantity of windmill units in the start-up state to obtain the practical output power P<1>(t) per minute of the entire wind power station, and continuously performing arithmetic average to P<1>(t) for 15 times to obtain the practical average output power P(t) per every 15 minutes of the entire wind power station; performing simulation calculation: inputting a simulation input quantity, predicting the power of the entire wind power station in later four hours by adopting a continuous method, i.e., calculating a practical average power value P(t) of a current moment serving as a predicted value of later 16 time points; and performing error analysis: giving the accuracy of the calculation method according to the requirements of accuracy and yield in the Interim Measure for Power Prediction and Forecast Management of Wind Power Station edition 2011 made up by the National Energy Administration according to an error evaluation standard. The method has the advantages of science, rationality, easiness, practicability, high calculation speed, higher accuracy and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of wind power, and relates to a calculation method for real-time prediction of wind power of a wind farm based on measured data. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of wind power generation and the continuous expansion of wind power installed capacity, the impact of wind farm grid connection on the power system cannot be ignored. When large-scale wind farms are connected to the grid for operation, large wind power fluctuations will have adverse effects on the power balance and frequency regulation of the grid. If the power generation of wind farms can be predicted, the power dispatching department can pre-arrange dispatching plans according to changes in wind power to ensure power balance and operational safety of the grid. Therefore, high-precision wind power prediction is an important means to realize large-scale wind power grid operation. [0003] The real-time forecast of wind powe...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

This method obviously ignores the time-series correlation characteristics of wind power in wind farms, so the above traditional methods are costly but poor in accuracy

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