Method for predicting cotton aphid population quantity in short term

A short-term forecast, cotton aphid technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as inaccuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2013-03-13
XINJIANG INST OF ECOLOGY & GEOGRAPHY CHINESE ACAD OF SCI
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

The present invention aims at defects such as the inaccuracy of the short-term quantity prediction of cotton aphids in the prior art, and develops a short-term method for predicting the population quantity of cotton aphids on the basis of the field investigation data, combined with the temperature element forecast data of the meteorological department, and combines the current cotton aphids Investigate and predict the actual situation, and quickly and accurately realize the short-term quantity prediction of cotton aphids

Method used

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  • Method for predicting cotton aphid population quantity in short term
  • Method for predicting cotton aphid population quantity in short term
  • Method for predicting cotton aphid population quantity in short term

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
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Embodiment

[0023] Taking the occurrence of cotton aphids in Korla region of Xinjiang as an example in 2007, the N T+1 Predict the population of cotton aphid at any time;

[0024] Comprehensive collection of local cotton aphid population data and meteorological station monitoring data to obtain population dynamics and daily average temperature values ​​of cotton aphid;

[0025] Calculation of the intrinsic growth rate of cotton aphids: Based on the age-specific life tables of cotton aphids populations at different local temperatures, the intrinsic growth rates of cotton aphids populations at different temperatures are obtained, and the nonlinear function relationship between the intrinsic growth rate of cotton aphids population and temperature is established:

[0026] r m =0.42843-0.09639Te+0.00703Te 2 -0.00013Te 3

[0027] The daily average temperature forecast value of the next 5 days to be predicted is averaged, and the average is substituted into the above-mentioned functional equ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a method for predicting cotton aphid population quantity in short term. According to the method, a function relationship between the temperature and the cotton aphid population increase is established according to the cotton aphid population life tables at different temperatures on the basis of the field investigated data, and the change of the cotton aphid population quantity in the next time period (about 5 days) can be predicted by using an exponential increase method through a recursive calculation manner on the basis of field cotton aphid population investigation, so that the short-term quantity prediction on the cotton aphid population is achieved, the prediction correctness on the cotton aphid population is improved, benefit is brought to the ecological control and scientific management for the cotton aphid in production, basis is provided for the scientific decision of control measures of the departments and guarantee is provided to the cotton production.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a short-term prediction method for cotton aphid population quantity, belonging to the field of agricultural pest control. Background technique [0002] Cotton aphid is a worldwide cotton pest and one of the major pests in my country's Yangtze River, Yellow River and Northwest cotton regions. Due to climate warming, continuous cropping of large areas of cotton for many years, and irrational use of a large number of pesticides, cotton aphids frequently break out in cotton areas in Xinjiang, often causing a 10-30% reduction in cotton production, posing a serious threat to my country's cotton production and industrial development. . There are many factors affecting the population of cotton aphid, making the population prediction of cotton aphid a bottleneck in cotton production. Solving the problem of cotton aphid population prediction will lay a good foundation for high cotton yield. [0003] At present, there are several method...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/02
Inventor 吕昭智苗伟高桂珍夏德萍孙平王佩玲罗朝辉马吉宏张娟徐养诚周生梅
Owner XINJIANG INST OF ECOLOGY & GEOGRAPHY CHINESE ACAD OF SCI
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