Wind power climbing event probability scene prediction method

Abstract

The invention relates to a wind power climbing event probability scene prediction method. According to the method, distribution characteristic consistency and time sequence characteristic consistency are achieved through building of a multi-objective fitness function of a cumulative density function and a high-order moment autocorrelation function. On the basis of a genetic algorithm of the multi-objective fitness function, iterative optimization is conducted on probability generation model parameters to obtain a large number of prediction scenes, and climbing event probability characteristics excavated from scene capture zones are used for evaluating the prediction method. Actual data of some aboard wind field are selected for conducting example calculation and statistical analysis, the result shows that the statistical result of the multi-objective function is more accurate than that of a single-objective function, the probability scene prediction method can accurately estimate the characteristic quantity of a climbing event, the correctness of the method is proved, and the method can provide guidance for a probability scene generation method and a climbing event prediction model.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a method for predicting wind power, in particular to a method for predicting a probability scene of a wind power ramp event. Background technique [0002] The uncertainty of wind power generation causes threats to the safety and stability of the power grid during its grid connection process, and even causes serious losses. A large increase or decrease in wind power power in a short period of time can easily form the so-called "climbing event" of wind power power. To make up for the output of traditional generator sets, such as using grid auxiliary services or limiting and reducing the ramp rate of wind power output, these measures have caused a greater degree of loss to grid operation. The research on ramp event prediction is an effective measure to solve this problem, and it will help the power grid dispatching department to formulate wind power grid connection schemes and auxiliary decision-making in advance. [000...

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Problems solved by technology

Wang Ying et al. from Southeast University proposed a new mathematical expression for ramping events according to the national wind power grid-connected standard, combined with wind-storage joint optimization control and wind power prediction data to suppress the occurrence of ramping events, but the actual prediction of ramping events There are few studies involved; Qi Yongzhi of Shandong University and others proposed the basic framework of limited control of climbing events using preventive control, climbing control and recovery control, but focused on the research of climbing control methods. The preliminary exploration of predictive control makes The article fails to determine the optimal amount and method of output reduction for prevention and control

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