Maximum daily load prediction system and method of electric system considering meteorological accumulative effect

A cumulative effect, load forecasting technology, applied in forecasting, computing, data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of load modeling, load management grid planning difficulties, complex grid load regularity, accumulation and other problems, to avoid multi-level amplification, The effect of reducing complexity and reducing prediction errors

Active Publication Date: 2014-11-19
GUANGXI POWER GRID CORP +1
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Problems solved by technology

The weather-sensitive load of the power grid continues to rise, and the impact of climate on load characteristics is increasing, and there are still complex cumulative an

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  • Maximum daily load prediction system and method of electric system considering meteorological accumulative effect
  • Maximum daily load prediction system and method of electric system considering meteorological accumulative effect
  • Maximum daily load prediction system and method of electric system considering meteorological accumulative effect

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Embodiment Construction

[0029] Referring to the accompanying drawings, specific embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below.

[0030] like figure 1 As shown, the maximum daily load forecasting system of the power system in consideration of meteorological cumulative effect according to the present invention includes a data collection module, a data screening processing module, a load forecasting modeling module, a load forecasting module and a software graphical interface module.

[0031] The modeling method considering the influence of meteorological cumulative effect in the forecasting modeling of the maximum daily load of the power system described in the present invention includes the selection of key meteorological factors that affect load fluctuations, and the establishment of a basic forecasting model without cumulative effects. For loads with significant cumulative effects Perform predictive-correction modeling.

[0032] like figure 2 , image 3 and Figure 4 As...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a maximum daily load prediction system and method of an electric system considering the meteorological accumulative effect. The meteorological and load data is read in a system by a data acquisition module; the load data is divided into two parts by a data screening and processing module: one part contains no accumulative effect and the other part is of significant accumulative effect and the key meteorological index influencing the network load is determined; a non-accumulative daily load basic prediction model is firstly established in the load prediction modeling module, on the basis, an accumulative daily load modified model is established so as to generate a comprehensive prediction model; finally in the load prediction module, the modeling module result and the meteorological and load database are linked to obtain a load predicted value, which is input into a software diagram interface to be supplied to a user. The maximum daily load prediction system and method can reflect the influences of meteorological conditions on the timeliness and accumulation of the network load, helps grid operating personnel accurately master the variation regulation of load, timely predict the maximum daily load change according to the weather conditions on the basis of weather forecasts, so as to improve the accuracy of short-term load prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a short-term and medium-term load forecasting method and technology for an electric power system considering meteorological factors, and is a maximum daily load forecasting modeling optimization system and method thereof in consideration of the comprehensive influence of meteorological factors. Background technique [0002] Power System Maximum Daily Load Forecasting Short-term load forecasting is an important part of power grid dispatching, an important part of the short-term load forecasting field in power systems, and has an important impact on power system energy saving and emission reduction. Accurate load forecasting is of great significance for maintaining the safe and stable operation of the power system and ensuring the orderly progress of people's production activities and life. With the gradual improvement of residents' living conditions, air-conditioning and heating appear frequently in daily life and work, the grid...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 李滨吴茵张智光朱桂兰龚利武牟才荣覃芳璐巩德军黄佳苗增强韦化林洁
Owner GUANGXI POWER GRID CORP
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