Model and method for predicting probability of post-operation recent relapse and metastasis of giant liver caner of a patient

Abstract

The invention relates to a mathematical model and method for predicting the probability of post-operation recent relapse and metastasis of the giant liver caner of a patient. The mathematical model can be represented through the equation: P=1 / (1+Y), wherein P is the probability of the post-operation recent relapse and metastasis of the giant liver caner of the patient; when P represents the probability of relapse and metastasis occurring in six mouths, Y=exp(4.092+2.073*X12-2.719*X14-2.58*X17+3.039*X19); when P represents the probability of relapse and metastasis occurring in six mouths to twelve months, Y=exp(2.528+1.633*X8+0.971*X12-1.517*X17). The mathematical model and method for predicting the probability of post-operation recent relapse and metastasis of the giant liver caner of the patient mainly have the advantages that multiple indexes relevant to recent relapse and metastasis of the giant liver cancer are comprehensively analyzed based on multiple factors and polyprotein, the effect of predicting post-operation recent relapse and metastasis is achieved through the predicting model, and the model and method have great significance in clinical practice and individualized selection of therapeutic schedules.

Description

(1) Technical field [0001] The invention relates to a mathematical model and method for predicting the short-term recurrence and metastasis probability of patients with huge liver cancer after operation. (2) Background technology [0002] Hepatocellular carcinoma ranks fifth in the incidence of malignant tumors in the world, and its mortality rate ranks third in the cause of death of malignant tumors in the world (Jemal A, Siegel R, Ward E, et al. Cancer statistics, 2008. Cancer J Clin, 2008; 58 :71-96), my country is a big country with liver cancer, and there are about 450,000 new cases of liver cancer every year, and it has become the second killer of cancer patients (Zhang Weidong, Miao Guojun; Epidemiological characteristics of malignant tumor mortality in my country Analysis; China Health Education, 2009, 25:246-248), especially giant liver cancer. [0003] Huge HCC refers to a subtype of HCC with a diameter greater than 10 cm. Surgical resection is currently the first ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] At present, there are many analyzes related to the factors related to postoperative recurrence and metastasis of giant liver cancer, but most of them are based on single factor. Although this provides a relatively accurate judgment to a certain extent, it is still limited and one-sided. A multifactorial and complex pathological process, in which the molecular characteristics of proteins determine the biological behavior of liver cancer. So far, there is no relevant literature reporting the multifactorial and multiprotein mathematical factors of the recent recurrence and metastasis of massive liver cancer. Prediction model, if multiple indicators related to the recurrence and metastasis of liver cancer can be comprehensively analyzed from multiple factors and proteins, a mathematical prediction model for the recurrence and metastasis of giant liver cancer can be established to provide theoretical and experimental basis for individualized clinical treatment and prediction of postoperative efficacy

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