Data processing method for forecasting heavy precipitation weather

A data processing and heavy precipitation technology, applied in the direction of electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems such as difficult to realize automatic objective analysis, difficult to accurately describe numerical models, and large deviations in weather phenomenon forecasting

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-01-21
LANZHOU UNIVERSITY
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Problems solved by technology

[0010] 2) When using the fall area for forecasting, diagrams are often used for simple overlapping of areas, which is difficult to achieve automatic objective analysis, and it is impossible to objectively estimate the magnitude of precipitation
[0011] 3) Although the weather classification method has been carried out for a long time, the classification is mainly based on the experience of the forecaster, through subjective forecasting and qualitative judgment of the possible precipitation area, resulting in too many subjective and empirical elements, and the degree of objectification Not enough, hard to quantify
[0012] 4) Although the products of the numerical forecast model are abundant, there are still large

Method used

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  • Data processing method for forecasting heavy precipitation weather

Examples

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Embodiment 1

[0068] Example 1 Precipitation in northern Henan in August 2009

[0069] On August 17, 2009, heavy precipitation occurred in the north-central part of Henan Province and the west part of Shandong Province ( figure 1 ), the maximum precipitation reached 176mm from 00:00 on the 17th to 00:00 on the 18th (UTC, the same below), and the heavy precipitation was mainly concentrated at 00-12:00. On the weather map at 500hPa at 12:00 on August 16, the Asian continent north of 45°N showed two troughs and two ridges (figure omitted); south of 45°N, there was a wide low trough in the Hetao area of ​​my country, and Moving eastward, the western ridge point of the subtropical high in the western Pacific is located at about 100°E, and the eastern part of my country is under the control of the southerly airflow. From 00 to 06 on the 17th, the western Pacific subtropical high was basically stable in the East China region, the eastward movement of the Hetao low trough slowed down, and the North...

Embodiment 22012

[0079] Example 2 Extreme precipitation in Beijing area on July 21, 2012

[0080] In order to further verify the application of the method of the present invention in extreme precipitation, the historically rare torrential rain that occurred in Beijing and parts of Hebei Province on July 21, 2012 was analyzed. The average rainfall in Beijing is 164mm, which is the largest in 61 years. This rainstorm occurred under the circulation situation of the north vortex and the south trough, high in the east and low in the west. The heavy rainfall area is located on the right rear side of the entrance area of ​​the high-altitude jet, and the high-altitude 200hPa is a significant diversion area (figure omitted); There is a high-altitude trough around the Hetao area, and the Beijing area is located in front of the trough. In fact, this precipitation has two phases: from 02 to 08:00 on July 21, it is the precipitation phase in the warm area, dominated by stratiform clouds, and the precipita...

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Abstract

The invention provides a data processing method for forecasting heavy precipitation weather. The data processing method for forecasting the heavy precipitation weather comprises the steps that firstly, thermodynamic factors, dynamic factors and a moisture index influencing occurrence of heavy precipitation are collected; secondly, according to the precipitation occurrence and development nonlinear theory, the thermodynamic factors, the dynamic factors and the moisture index are integrated, so that the physical quantity index THP is obtained; finally, according to the synoptic situations at 500hPa and at 700hPa of upper air, whether a good lifting mechanism exists or not is judged, and then the belt of the heavy precipitation and the magnitude of the heavy precipitation can be forecasted, wherein the area with a large value of the index THP is the large-probability area of precipitation in next six hours, the maximum value of the THP corresponds to the maximum amount of precipitation in next six hours, when the value of the THP is increased along with time, the amount of precipitation is increased, and otherwise the amount of precipitation is reduced. By the adoption of the data processing method for forecasting heavy precipitation weather, the belt of heavy precipitation and the development and change of precipitation can be more objectively forecasted, the magnitude of precipitation can be estimated quantitatively, and automatic operation can be achieved through a computer.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of weather forecast guarantee, and in particular relates to a data processing method for forecasting heavy precipitation weather. Background technique [0002] In recent years, heavy precipitation in my country has shown an overall trend of increasing intensity, increasing frequency, and increasing inhomogeneity (Wang Xiaoling, Zhai Panmao, 2008; Li Jian, Yu Rucong et al., 2013). Heavy precipitation often develops rapidly and is highly catastrophic, which can easily cause secondary disasters such as urban waterlogging, landslides, and farmland waterlogging, and bring huge losses to social production and people's lives. However, the forecast of heavy precipitation is still a weak link in atmospheric science today, and its accuracy, objectivity and automation level need to be further improved. The data processing and application of heavy precipitation forecast in foreign countries has developed rapidly, and c...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 李德帅王金艳王式功张英华尚可政赵宗锁马晓玲
Owner LANZHOU UNIVERSITY
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