Region small hydropower station power generation capacity prediction method

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of power generation and discloses a region small hydropower station power generation capacity prediction method. Large-small hydropower station correlation is used, the method for predicating region small hydropower station power generation capacity with large hydropower station flow is achieved. According to the technical scheme, a region hydropower station group whole is used as a study object, large-medium hydropower stations with similar hydrology and weather in the same or similar regions with information such as long-term runoff and power generation capacity are selected, large hydropower station section flow in the regions and small hydropower station power generation used hours in each month are subjected to correlation analysis, and a correlation coefficient is obtained. After a hydropower station with the largest correlation coefficient with the small hydropower station group power generation capacity is found, a large-small hydropower station regression model is established, and the method for predicating region small hydropower station power generation capacity with large hydropower station section flow is achieved. According to the method, power generation capacity predication on single small hydropower stations one by one is of no need, long-term section flow of large-medium hydropower stations in the same or adjacent regions can be obtained easily, accordingly, hydropower stations with good correlation are subjected to searching for carrying out region power generation capacity prediction, the problem that small hydropower station power generation information is not enough, so that prediction cannot be carried out easily is solved, and a feasible method is provided for small hydropower station group power generation capacity prediction at information-lacking regions. Great significance is achieved in large-small small hydropower station coordination, solving of problems of water abandoning and high power using by small families and power grid safe operation guaranteeing.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power generation, in particular to a large and small hydropower related method for predicting the power generation capacity of small hydropower in a region. technical background [0002] As an internationally recognized clean and renewable energy, small hydropower has developed rapidly with an annual installed capacity of more than 2.5 million kW due to its advantages of small scale, low investment, quick results, no pollution, and promotion of local economic construction. As of the end of 2013, my country's small hydropower installed capacity has exceeded 68,000MW, accounting for 24% of the country's installed hydropower capacity, which is equivalent to three Three Gorges projects. Small hydropower is mostly concentrated in economically backward areas, and the consumption capacity of local users is limited. As a result, the power generation capacity is far greater than the demand for electricity, and it needs to b...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Using the correlation between large and small hydropower to predict the monthly power generation capacity of regional small hydropower from the predicted value of monthly interval flow of large hydropower

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