L-moment parameter estimating method for fuzzy information containing historical flood
A technology of fuzzy information and history, applied in the field of linear moment estimation, can solve the problems of increasing historical flood estimation error, reducing applicability, estimating frequency distribution function, etc. Effect
Inactive Publication Date: 2015-07-01
WUHAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology
The first method cannot use the L-moment method to estimate parameters, which reduces the applicability of the method; the second method, artificially estimating the value, will increase the estimation error of historical floods; the third method removes some historical floods After that, it will increase the return period of the remaining historical floods, and will produce a large error
For historical floods with fuzzy information, how to use the L-moment method to estimate the parameters of the frequency distribution function has not been documented at home and abroad
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[0029] The present invention discretizes the possible value of historical floods containing fuzzy information within a reasonable range, substitutes the discrete values of historical floods into the calculation formula of the L-moment method that can consider historical floods, and calculates the frequency distribution line Type parameters, so the frequency distribution function is obtained, and then the historical flood and the measured flood sequence with more accurate magnitudes are substituted into the frequency distribution function to calculate the corresponding theoretical frequency, and calculate their empirical frequency, and then obtain the fuzzy information Under different discrete value combinations of historical floods, the sum of squared deviations of the frequency estimation results is solved by the stochastic dynamic programming method to obtain the discrete value when the sum of squared deviations is minimized, then the frequency distribution line calculated u...
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The invention discloses an L-moment parameter estimating method for fuzzy information containing historical flood. The method comprises the steps of dispersing possible quantity value of the fuzzy information containing historical flood within a reasonable range; solving to obtain sum of squares of deviations of the frequency estimation result of the fuzzy information containing historical flood under different dispersing values; solving by the random dynamic planning method to obtain a dispersing value combination under the minimum sum of squares of deviations; calculating to obtain the frequency distribution line parameters which are the optimal solution under the dispersion value combination. According to the method, redundant information is not increased, the historical flood error is not increased, the optimal parameters of the estimation result can be obtained, the adaptability of the L-moment method is improved, and important reference basis is provided to the parameter estimation of the flood frequency distribution functions of a reservoir.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a linear moment parameter estimation method, in particular to an L-moment parameter estimation method for historical floods containing fuzzy information. Background technique [0002] Flood frequency analysis is the main content of estimating the design flood of water conservancy and hydropower projects, and it is also an important basis for calculating design standards during the construction of water conservancy projects. The so-called parameter estimation refers to using the empirical frequency formula to plot the flood series on the probability graph paper, and after selecting the distribution line type of the flood series, estimate the statistical parameters contained in the line type. The parameter estimation method is an important content of the flood frequency analysis. The L-moment (linear moment) method is one of the latest methods for the parameter estimation of the flood frequency analysis. It is developed on the ba...
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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 尹家波
Owner WUHAN UNIV