Tourist attraction saturation pre-warning method with function of passenger flow volume fitting on basis of network attention
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A technology of network attention and passenger flow, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as the lag of forecast results, the inconvenience of tourist travel and scenic spot management.
Inactive Publication Date: 2015-09-30
SOUTH CHINA UNIV OF TECH
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[0006] Existing prediction models ignore the time difference between passenger search behavior and travel behavior, which makes the prediction results lag to a certain extent, which brings inconvenience to tourists' travel and scenic spot management
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Embodiment 1
[0072] Such as figure 1 As shown, the tourist attraction saturation early warning method based on network attention fitting passenger flow of the present embodiment includes the following steps:
[0073] 1) Acquisition of daily passenger flow data within a certain research period of the scenic spot
[0074] Query the daily passenger flow data of a certain research period of the scenic spot through the official website of the scenic spot or the tourism yearbook issued by the local government;
[0075] 2) Calculation of the degree of network attention in the research period of the scenic spot
[0076] 2.1) Preliminary selection of network search keywords based on tourism elements
[0077] Select the six tourism elements of "food, housing, travel, travel, shopping, and entertainment" as the universal keyword selection criteria, and determine the six keywords are: "scenic spot name + food", "scenic spot name + hotel", "scenic spot name Name + Traffic", "Scenic Spot Name + Attra...
Embodiment 2
[0122] This embodiment is an application example. The Sichuan Jiuzhaigou National Natural Scenic Area is selected, and 2014 is used as the research period to provide a tourist attraction saturation early warning method based on network attention and passenger flow.
[0123] 1) Preparation of basic data
[0124] Data sources include Baidu Index data sharing platform, Webmaster Tools long-tail keyword mining platform, official website of Jiuzhaigou Scenic Area
[0125] 1.1) Obtain the daily passenger flow data of Jiuzhaigou Scenic Area in 2014
[0126] Open the official website of Jiuzhaigou Scenic Area, click on the column of "Daily Number of People Entering the Ditch" in "Scenic Spot News", and get the daily number of people in the whole year of 2014;
[0127] 1.2) Preliminary selection of network search keywords based on tourism elements
[0128] Select the six tourism elements of "food, housing, transportation, travel, shopping, and entertainment" as the universal keyword ...
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Abstract
The invention discloses a tourist attraction saturation pre-warning method with a function of passenger flow volume fitting on the basis of network attention. The method includes: inquiring daily passenger flow volume data of a scenic spot in a certain research period according to an official website of the scenic spot or a local tourism yearbook; calculating network attention of the scenic spot within the research period; adopting MATLAB software to subject two groups of data to cross-correlation function analysis so as to obtain a time series difference value between the network attention of the scenic spot and the passenger flow volume of the scenic spot, and fitting a scenic spot passenger flow volume prediction model; inputting the network attention of the scenic spot in the research period, calculating to obtain predicated passenger flow volume, and when the predicated passenger flow volume is larger than a comfort bearing capacity of the scenic spot, calculating saturation of the scenic spot, triggering a scenic spot saturation diagnosis system to carry out saturation diagnosis, and providing related strategies and advices for scenic spot managers and tourists. The method has the advantages that the passenger flow volume of the scenic spot can be predicated in real time while saturation estimation of the scenic spot is realized, and the scenic spot managers and the tourists are provided with the related strategies.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a saturation early warning method of a tourist scenic spot, in particular to a saturation early warning method of a tourist scenic spot based on network attention and passenger flow fitting, and belongs to the field of early warning of a tourist scenic spot. Background technique [0002] The correlation between Internet search data and real social behavior has always been a hot spot of research at home and abroad. Ginsberg et al. (2009) used the search analysis function provided by Google to analyze the correlation between the search volume of influenza-related keywords and the number of influenza cases. Research, Liu Ying, Lu Benfu, etc. (2011) took stocks as an example and found that the amount of Internet searches can better predict the return rate of stocks. [0003] With the rapid development of Internet technology, the traditional tourism industry is facing huge impacts and challenges. The huge Internet search data reflec...
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