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Method for estimating parameters of reliability models of multi-state systems

A multi-state system and model parameter technology, applied in the direction of reasoning methods, electrical testing/monitoring, etc., can solve problems such as inability to analyze and evaluate system reliability

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-12-02
UNIV OF ELECTRONIC SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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Problems solved by technology

Under the above circumstances, if the system is still regarded as a two-state system and the nature of the system’s gradual degradation during the service period is ignored, it will not be possible to conduct accurate reliability analysis and evaluation of the system

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  • Method for estimating parameters of reliability models of multi-state systems
  • Method for estimating parameters of reliability models of multi-state systems
  • Method for estimating parameters of reliability models of multi-state systems

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Embodiment Construction

[0053] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific implementation, and a multi-state transmission system is used as an example here.

[0054] The Bayesian Network (BN) method is a newly proposed combination of probability theory and graph theory in recent years. It is an important tool for expressing and reasoning about uncertain knowledge. It is a directed graph model. The Bayesian network has the characteristics of intuition, hierarchy and system, which makes the method have good prospects in reliability theory research and engineering application. Compared with the traditional multi-state system reliability modeling methods, such as: stochastic process model, stochastic simulation method and general generating function method, the Bayesian network method can well solve the problems in the process of multi-state system reliability analysis. The state space explosion problem, and the Bayesian network method ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for estimating parameters of reliability models of multi-state systems. The method comprises the following steps: collecting state information of a monitored multi-state system in the usage phase; establishing a dynamic Bayes network reliability model of the system according to composition logic of units in the monitored multi-state system so as to update state information of all nodes in a Bayes network and obtain posterior state probability distribution sequences of all the units; and estimating transfer parameters of the units by utilizing the posterior state probability distribution sequences of the units in the system. According to the method provided by the invention, the Bayes network is used for carrying out state information reasoning on all the units in the multi-state system; the observation information can come from each layer of the system; the observation can be complete information or incomplete information, so that the information transfer among different layers of the system can be realized and information reasoning under the condition of incomplete state information can be realized so as to improve the correctness of parameter estimation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of system reliability, and in particular relates to a parameter estimation method of a multi-state system reliability model. technical background [0002] With the development of modern systems and equipment in the direction of large-scale, complex and sophisticated and the gradual in-depth understanding of the failure mechanism and potential laws of the system, the failure evolution process of the system and its constituent units in the life cycle often presents The characteristics of multi-state, and the failure law and mechanism, work performance and efficiency of each state are not the same. In this case, if the conventional two-state reliability theory is used to roughly divide the system into two states of "normal" and "failure", it is obviously not in line with the actual situation, and it is impossible to ignore the multi-state characteristics of the system itself. To accurately describe the complex failure p...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06N5/04G05B23/02
Inventor 刘宇姜涛张志鹏
Owner UNIV OF ELECTRONIC SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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