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Short-term power prediction method for photovoltaic power generation system

A photovoltaic power generation system, power prediction technology, applied in the direction of instruments, character and pattern recognition, computer components, etc., can solve problems such as uncertainty volatility, unfavorable power grid security scheduling and energy management, and increased risk of power grid operation

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-03-30
TIANJIN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

Although photovoltaic power generation has been widely used due to its many advantages, due to the influence of environmental factors on photovoltaic power generation systems, there are characteristics such as uncertainty, volatility, and intermittence, which are not conducive to the safe dispatch and energy management of the power grid, and increase the operation of the power grid. risk

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  • Short-term power prediction method for photovoltaic power generation system
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  • Short-term power prediction method for photovoltaic power generation system

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Embodiment Construction

[0037] The technical scheme of the present invention is described in detail below

[0038] (1), reclassification of weather types

[0039] To establish a classification prediction model for photovoltaic power generation systems, it is necessary to divide historical data according to weather types, so as to establish corresponding prediction models. Current weather forecasts can divide weather types into sunny, cloudy, cloudy, rainy, snowy, foggy, etc. Too many category divisions will cause the feature vectors of the dataset to be too scattered, which will bring difficulties to the training of the model. Since the main natural factors that affect the output of photovoltaic systems are light intensity and ambient temperature, cloudy days, rain, snow, and smog with small fluctuations in light intensity and low average values ​​can be combined and processed according to whether the natural environment is continuous, stable, and average. The size of the numerical value, etc., div...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a short-term power prediction method for a photovoltaic power generation system. The method comprises the steps of re-dividing weather types: according to the factors that whether the variables of the natural environment are continuous and stable or not and the averaged values of the variables, dividing weather types in the generalized point of view; determining a similar day of a to-be-predicted day: determining a generalized weather type corresponding to the to-be-predicted day according to weather factors, selecting a historical day similar to the to-be-predicted day according to the grey correlation method, adopting the photovoltaic power output of the historical day as a model input, and selecting daily weather feature vectors; defining the degree of similarity between the to-be-predicted day and the above particular historical day; establishing a photovoltaic power generation short-term power prediction model based on a support vector machine, and optimizing the parameters of the prediction model according to the genetic algorithm. The above precision method is high in precision, and fast in convergence.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a power prediction method of a photovoltaic power generation system. Background technique [0002] Facing the increasingly severe energy situation and increasingly embarrassing environmental protection status, China has formulated relevant policies and development plans to vigorously develop renewable energy, and solar energy, as a complex and renewable energy, has caused a large amount of technology research and development investment in the energy industry. Solar power generation has the advantages of safety and reliability, high energy quality, no risk of depletion, no pollution, and simple maintenance. It is an important direction for the development of renewable energy. Although photovoltaic power generation has been widely used due to its many advantages, due to the influence of environmental factors on photovoltaic power generation systems, there are characteristics such as uncertainty, volatility, and intermittence, whi...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06K9/62G06N3/12
CPCG06N3/12G06F18/2411
Inventor 王继东宋智林孙佳文
Owner TIANJIN UNIV
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