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Lyapunov exponent based power system load prediction method and apparatus

A load forecasting and power system technology, applied in electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problem of low forecast accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-04-13
GUANGDONG UNIV OF TECH
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

However, in some actual predictions, this method still has the problem of low prediction accuracy.

Method used

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  • Lyapunov exponent based power system load prediction method and apparatus
  • Lyapunov exponent based power system load prediction method and apparatus
  • Lyapunov exponent based power system load prediction method and apparatus

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Embodiment 1

[0060] like figure 1 As shown, the device of the power system load forecasting method based on Lyapunov (Lyapunov) index of the present invention adopts a modular structure, which is beneficial to device upgrades and maintenance; online real-time collection of load data, online modeling, online forecasting , is a real-time online forecasting device; compared with the previous devices, it proposes to increase the forecasting effect simulation analysis module and the forecasting result evaluation module, so that the user can grasp the forecasting error in real time and make correct judgments and decisions. The device consists of a data acquisition card, a computer system, and a data output interface, specifically including a data acquisition module, an input module, a phase space reconstruction module, a chaotic characteristic discrimination module, a prediction module, a prediction effect simulation analysis module, a prediction result evaluation module, an output Modules, thes...

Embodiment 2

[0063] like figure 2 As shown, the power system load forecasting method based on Lyapunov index of the present invention is a new and more effective forecasting method. Improve the G-P algorithm for calculating the correlation dimension, the small data method for calculating the Lyapunov index, and the Euclid formula, and use these three improved methods to improve the prediction method of the largest Lyapunov index to further improve the prediction accuracy. The result is more accurate. The specific implementation steps are as follows:

[0064] (1) Collect and process the load data of the power grid to form a usable load time series {x(t),t=1,2...,N}, where N is the length of the load sequence;

[0065] (2) For the load time series {x(t),t=1,2...,N}, use the autocorrelation function method to calculate the delay time τ, and use the G-P algorithm to calculate the embedding dimension m;

[0066] (3) Perform phase space reconstruction according to the required delay time τ a...

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Abstract

The invention provides a Lyapunov exponent based power system load prediction method and apparatus. According to the method, a G-P algorithm for correlation dimension calculation, a small data volume method for Lyapunov exponent calculation, and a Euclid formula are improved, and a maximum Lyapunov exponent prediction method is improved by utilizing the three improved methods, so that the prediction precision is further improved and a prediction result is more accurate. According to the apparatus, a modular structure is adopted, so that the apparatus can be conveniently upgraded and maintained. At the same time, a real-time online forecasting apparatus is used for online real-time load data acquisition, online modeling and online forecasting.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of power system load forecasting, and more specifically, to a method and device for power system load forecasting based on Lyapunov index. Background technique [0002] In power system operation, control and planning management, load forecasting determines the reasonable arrangement of power generation, transmission and distribution, and is an important part of power system planning. Among them, the most important application of short-term load forecasting is to provide data for the power generation planning program to determine the operation plan that meets the safety requirements, operation constraints, and natural environment and equipment restrictions, which plays a role in the safety, reliability and economy of power grid operation. play an important role. How to improve the prediction accuracy is the center and focus of the research on the theory and method of short-term load forecasting. Accurate short...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG16Z99/00
Inventor 陈集思杨俊华陈俊宏林卓胜
Owner GUANGDONG UNIV OF TECH
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