Reservoir-induced earthquake probability calculation method

A probabilistic calculation and reservoir technology, applied in the fields of calculation, instrumentation, electrical and digital data processing, etc., which can solve the problems of difficult accurate measurement and difficult seismic analysis.

Active Publication Date: 2016-06-01
KUNMING UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] At present, the analysis models of reservoir-induced earthquakes regard relevant parameters as deterministic variables, but many factors affecting reservoir-induced earthquakes are mostly related to geological structural conditions, such as: mechanical indicators of deep rock mass, the magnitude of ground stress when earthquakes occur, Direction, distribution of pore water, etc., contain a large number of random uncertain factors, making it difficult to measure these factors accurately
Even if advanced methods are used to accurately measure these quantities, their values ​​still have relatively large changes, which brings difficulties to the analysis of reservoir-induced earthquakes

Method used

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Embodiment 1

[0040] Embodiment 1: as figure 1 As shown, a method for calculating the probability of reservoir-induced earthquakes, based on the Coulomb stress of the fault plane, establishes the functional function of fault seismicity, and the function function interrupts the cohesive force c of the fault plane, the friction coefficient of the fault plane μ, and the actual water head of pore water at the seismic site h , coordinate plane stress σ ij , the normal stress σ on the coordinate plane ii , the direction cosine n of the fault plane i Consider it as a random variable; then apply the reliability theory to calculate the probability of reservoir induced earthquake.

[0041] The concrete steps of described method are as follows:

[0042] Step1, the shear strength τ of the fault plane crit Subtracted from the shear stress τ of the fault plane, the Coulomb stress σ of the fault plane is obtained f :

[0043] σ f =τ crit -τ(1)

[0044] In the formula: the shear strength τ of the ...

Embodiment 2

[0072] Embodiment 2: as figure 1 As shown, a method for calculating the probability of reservoir-induced earthquakes, based on the Coulomb stress of the fault plane, establishes the functional function of fault seismicity, and the function function interrupts the cohesive force c of the fault plane, the friction coefficient of the fault plane μ, and the actual water head of pore water at the seismic site h , coordinate plane stress σ ij , the normal stress σ on the coordinate plane ii , the direction cosine n of the fault plane i Consider it as a random variable; then apply the reliability theory to calculate the probability of reservoir induced earthquake.

Embodiment 3

[0073] Embodiment 3: as figure 1 As shown, a method for calculating the probability of reservoir-induced earthquakes, assuming a channel-type reservoir, the water surface width of the dam site area is 5km after the channel is filled with water, and the maximum water depth is 200m. The lithology of the dam site area is mainly granodiorite, and there are A fault, the fault occurrence is 80°∠60°, and the rock mass density is 2700kg / m 3 , the elastic modulus is 30Gpa, the Poisson’s ratio is 0.26, the friction coefficient of the fault plane is 1.2, the cohesion is 600kpa, and the earthquake-generating site is located 5km below the reservoir. Now analyze the probability of an earthquake induced by reservoir water storage.

[0074] 1. Calculation of stress at the site of the earthquake

[0075] (1) Vertical stress calculation

[0076] The vertical self-weight stress is approximated by the weight of the overlying strata σ 33 = σ z =γd=2700×9.8×5×10 3 =130.95Mpa; γ is the weight o...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a reservoir-induced earthquake probability calculation method and belongs to the field of analysis of reservoir-induced earthquakes. The reservoir-induced earthquake probability calculation method comprises the following steps: based on coulomb stress of a fault plane, establishing a functional function of fault earthquakes; taking a fault plane cohesive force, a fault plane friction coefficient, an actual water head of earthquake part pore water, coordinate plane stress, coordinate plane positive stress and a direction cosine of the fault plane in the functional function as random variables; calculating the probability of reservoir-induced earthquakes by applying a reliability theory. According to the reservoir-induced earthquake probability calculation method, factors, which influence the reservoir-induced earthquakes, are considered as the random variables and distribution types of the random variables are analyzed; the change of the stress of the fault plane is analyzed by adopting a coulomb stress theory which is widely adopted; based on the reliability theory, the probability of the reservoir-induced earthquakes is calculated and a novel concept is provided for analyzing the reservoir-induced earthquakes.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for calculating the probability of reservoir-induced earthquakes, belonging to the field of reservoir-induced earthquake analysis. Background technique [0002] Reservoir-induced earthquakes are caused by humans blocking the river and building dams to raise the river water in front of the dam, forming a reservoir-induced seismic activity. The world's first data report about reservoir-induced earthquakes is Lake Mead (Lake Mead, the reservoir of the Hoover Dam) in the United States. At present, there are more than 130 cases of reservoir-induced earthquakes reported in the world, and about 100 cases are generally recognized, accounting for only about 2‰ of the total number of dams with a height of more than 15m. China has more reservoir-induced earthquakes. One of the countries with 34 cases reported so far and 22 widely acknowledged. According to about 25,800 dams with a dam height greater than 15m in my country, only...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/367
Inventor 魏海廖敏王琳
Owner KUNMING UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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