Carbon market transaction behavior modeling method integrating real participants and computer agents

Abstract

The invention discloses a carbon market transaction behavior modeling method integrating real participants and computer agents, and belongs to the technical field of power systems and automation thereof. By the carbon market transaction behavior modeling method, according to driving variables and decision variables of the participants in the bilateral concentrated carbon transaction process, a decision probability model for the computer agents is established; then hybrid simulation is performed in the coexistence of the computer agents and the real participants, and on the basis of statistical calculation of a large number of samples, the decision model for the computer agents is updated, therefore, multi-round iterative simulation is performed; through verification of the convergence of a decision model for the participants in the multi-round simulation process, whether the simulation is terminated is judged, and the converged decision model is used for substituting decision behaviors of a group of the real participants. By the carbon market transaction behavior modeling method, sensitivity analysis on key carbon market parameters can be effectively supported, and a sand table deduction tool is provided for the carbon market participants; the carbon market transaction behavior modeling method can be popularized in other bilateral market simulation analysis.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system automation, in particular, the invention relates to a carbon market transaction behavior modeling method integrating real participants and computer agents. Background technique [0002] On December 12, 2015, the Paris Climate Change Conference adopted a new agreement on global climate change. All parties involved will strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, control the increase in global average temperature to within 2 degrees Celsius compared with the pre-industrial level, and Efforts are made to control the temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius. The world will reach the peak of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, and achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of this century. Achieving the "2°C" target requires trillions of dollars in investment in the global low-carbon transition, and the importance of carbon pricing in promoting c...

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Problems solved by technology

There are still shackles in the engineering application of experimental economics. First, it is not easy to gather a sufficient number of participants who meet the qualification requirements; The simulation time will be difficult to control; finally, it is also a problem to ensure the repeatability and validity of the simulation results

[0006] In the bilateral centralized trading carbon market, both buyers and sellers need to declare the transaction volume and transaction price. When matching and clearing buy orders and sell orders, a certain scale of buy orders and sell orders is required to effectively form the market price, otherwise there may be a large number of no transactions. day, which affects the validity of the simulation results

There are at least hundreds of market participants in China's pilot carbon market, but it is difficult for traditional experimental economics experiments to reach this scale

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