Travel spot passenger flow dynamic prediction method

A technology of dynamic forecasting and passenger flow, which is applied in the field of dynamic forecasting of passenger flow in tourist attractions, can solve problems such as easy to fall into local optimal values, achieve strong universality and improve accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2017-07-18
SHAANXI NORMAL UNIV
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  • Abstract
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

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  • Travel spot passenger flow dynamic prediction method
  • Travel spot passenger flow dynamic prediction method
  • Travel spot passenger flow dynamic prediction method

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment

[0079] 1. Obtain multi-factor weather

[0080] The present invention verifies the effectiveness of the present invention by taking the prediction of Xi'an Museum as an example. The example collects the daily passenger flow data from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2015, and the daily temperature, humidity, wind speed, and weather conditions from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2015 (the sunny day is marked as 0, Rain and snow are identified as 1, and cloudy days are 0.5).

[0081] 2. Obtain the human comfort level on the forecast day

[0082] According to the calculation formula of human comfort: Get the climate comfort of the future forecast day

[0083] 3. Obtain the comfort level of the forecast day

[0084] According to the comparison table of comfort level, the obtained climate comfort level is compared with Table 1, and the climate comfort level of each forecast day is shown in Table 2.

[0085] Table 2

[0086]

[0087] 4. Smooth historical passenger flow da...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a travel spot passenger flow dynamic prediction method; the travel spot passenger flow dynamic prediction method combines a statistics method with a nerve network, considers various factor influences on the traveling, and combines a trend extrapolation method, a monthly index method and a fluctuation coefficient method in the statistics with a BPNN; the travel spot passenger flow dynamic prediction method considers various factors affecting the travelling, uses the monthly index to divide history visitors into small scale data, uses the BP to fully study, and finally uses the fluctuation coefficient to dynamically predict the travel spot passenger flow according to the holiday real conditions, thus providing large conveniences for a travel spot manager, providing guidance effect for travelers, and dynamically predicting the holiday passenger flows according to the future holiday real conditions.

Description

【Technical field】 [0001] The invention belongs to the field of passenger flow prediction of tourist attractions, relates to technologies such as statistics and neural networks, and specifically relates to a method for dynamically predicting passenger flow of tourist attractions. 【Background technique】 [0002] At present, the tourism industry is developing rapidly. Every weekend and holiday, the passenger flow of tourist attractions increases sharply. The passenger flow exceeding the load of scenic spots will not only destroy the balance of scenic spots, but also bring a huge threat to the management of tourism management departments. In order to effectively control the passenger flow of tourist attractions and maintain the ecological balance of tourist attractions, accurate and effective forecasting of tourist passenger flow has become a hot and difficult issue in tourism research today. [0003] At present, there are many methods for tourist passenger flow forecasting, wh...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/10G06N3/08
CPCG06N3/084G06Q10/04G06Q50/10
Inventor 曹菡冯倩
Owner SHAANXI NORMAL UNIV
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