Reservoir real-time water storage scheduling method based on ensemble forecast

Abstract

The present invention provides a reservoir real-time water storage scheduling method based on ensemble forecast, the utilization efficiency of various runoff data can be improved, and a scheduling result is optimized. The method is characterized in that the method comprises the following steps of (1) determining a total time length from a facing period to the end of a water storage period in a current scheduling period, determining a forecast period length of the ensemble forecast, and dividing the whole scheduling period into a forecast period and a remaining period, (2) determining runoff input data in the forecast period and the remaining period, (3) establishing a reservoir optimal scheduling model, (4) obtaining a scheduling decision table of the current facing period, (5) consulting the scheduling decision table according to a current reservoir capacity and the inflow condition when an actual inflow situation happens, carrying out interpolation calculation, and obtaining the reservoir capacity at the end of the period, and (6) repeating the steps (1) to (5) day by day for a whole water storage period, updating forecast information, obtaining a scheduling decision table of each day, guiding the real-time scheduling of each day, and then completing the scheduling of the whole water storage period.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of reservoir forecasting and dispatching operation, and in particular relates to a real-time reservoir dispatching method based on collective forecasting. technical background [0002] Reservoir regulation achieves the purpose of benefiting and eliminating harm by changing the temporal and spatial distribution of natural runoff. In order to survive the floods safely, the reservoirs generally vacate their storage capacity gradually before the flood season, maintain the limited water level during the flood season, start storing water at the end of the flood season, and gradually raise the water level to the normal storage level, and then enter the water supply period. Whether the reservoir can be fully stored within the water storage period will affect the comprehensive benefits of power generation, shipping, and water supply during the water supply period of the next year. [0003] In the current dispatching practice,...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] There are the following problems in the existing technology: (1) The current water storage period scheduling is mainly based on the conventional scheduling chart, and the runoff forecast information cannot be used; (2) In the real-time scheduling of the reservoir, it is difficult to fully use the runoff forecast information with errors

These problems will reduce the accuracy of scheduling decisions, and cannot maximize the use of water resources and maximize benefits

Images