Wind power output typical scene generation method suitable for mid-and-long term power planning

Abstract

The invention discloses a wind power output typical scene generation method suitable for mid-and-long term power planning. The method comprises the steps that historical data are acquired, including the s-season typical daily load curve and the s-season daily wind power output curve; the daily peak period, the daily intermediate load period and the daily valley period are obtained according to the peak, valley and intermediate load characteristics of the s-season typical daily load curve, and then the characteristic index of the s-season daily wind power output curve can be obtained; and the power balance scene and the probability thereof, the peak load balance scene and the probability thereof and the power balance scene and the probability thereof of the random wind power output typical scene can be obtained according to the characteristic index of the s-season wind power output curve. The characteristics of mid-and-long term power planning and the power structure characteristics are comprehensively considered, and the uncertainty, the seasonal characteristics and the source-load interactive characteristics of wind power output are considered so that the method can be used for various occasions of mid-and-long term power planning and analysis of the related topics.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of wind power generation, and more specifically relates to a method for generating typical scenarios of wind power output suitable for medium and long-term power supply planning. Background technique [0002] With the increasing shortage of fossil energy and the rising calls for environmental protection, wind power, as a clean and efficient form of new energy, has begun to be connected to the power system in a large-scale and centralized manner. However, different from the deterministic output characteristics of conventional power sources, wind power generation is intermittent and uncertain, which brings great challenges to the medium and long-term power planning of power systems. The production simulation analysis of power system operation is an important means to evaluate the economy and rationality of medium and long-term power planning schemes, and the establishment of an output model that can accurately take into...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] Aiming at the above defects or improvement needs of the prior art, the present invention provides a method for generating typical scenarios of wind power output suitable for mid- and long-term power planning, thereby solving the problem of existing wind power modeling methods due to large-scale wind power access to the power system. Neglecting the characteristics of load matching, and not being able to accurately reflect the comprehensive impact of wind power generation on system power balance, peak shaving balance, and power balance in medium and long-term power planning, resulting in technical problems that various economic and technical indicators are not accurate enough

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