Multiple uncertainties-considered natural gas probability-fuzzy energy flow analysis method

A technology of uncertainty and analysis method, which is applied in the field of steady-state energy flow calculation of natural gas systems, and can solve problems such as not considering the influence of natural gas system energy flow at the same time.
CN108389136AActive Publication Date: 2018-08-10CHONGQING UNIV
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
CHONGQING UNIV
Publication Date
2018-08-10

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Abstract

The invention discloses a multiple uncertainties-considered natural gas probability-fuzzy energy flow analysis method. The method mainly comprises the following steps of: 1) establishing a natural gassystem model; 2) establishing a probability model of non-equilibrium node loads; 3) sampling the probability model of the non-equilibrium node loads by utilizing a Latin hypercube method, so as to obtain an N*NL-dimensional load probability sample matrix; 4) establishing a fuzzy model of pipeline comprehensive parameters; 5) sampling the fuzzy model of the pipeline comprehensive parameters by utilizing a <alpha>-cut set method; 6) calculating a pipeline energy flow and pipeline non-equilibrium node bearing pressure in the natural gas system by utilizing a newton method; and 7) calculating a possibility measure Pos and a necessity measure Nec of an output variable, so as to obtain a credibility function Bel and a verisimilitude function Pl of the output variable. The method combines the influences of two uncertain factors such as probability and fuzziness, and is capable of effectively and correctly calculating change ranges of output variables of natural gas systems.
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Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of natural gas system steady-state energy flow calculation, in particular to a natural gas probability-fuzzy energy flow analysis method considering multiple uncertainties. Background technique

[0002] Energy flow calculation, as the basic calculation for solving the state distribution of natural gas, is the basis of natural gas operation and planning. In the actual system, there are often many uncertainties, such as load fluctuations, temperature changes and so on. Their changes usually have a non-negligible impact on system operation. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out related research on uncertain energy flow in natural gas systems.

[0003] Existing research on uncertain energy flow mainly considers the uncertainty of energy injected into the system represented by the load, and evaluates its impact on the energy flow distribution of the system, without considering the parameter uncertainty of the...

Claims

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