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Multiple uncertainties-considered natural gas probability-fuzzy energy flow analysis method

A technology of uncertainty and analysis method, which is applied in the field of steady-state energy flow calculation of natural gas systems, and can solve problems such as not considering the influence of natural gas system energy flow at the same time.

Active Publication Date: 2018-08-10
CHONGQING UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] To sum up, in order to fully study the influence of various uncertain factors in the natural gas system, for the two types of uncertain models of load and pipeline comprehensive parameters, corresponding probability models and fuzzy models should be established in combination with their distribution characteristics. Simultaneously considering the impact of two types of uncertain factors on the energy flow of natural gas system

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  • Multiple uncertainties-considered natural gas probability-fuzzy energy flow analysis method
  • Multiple uncertainties-considered natural gas probability-fuzzy energy flow analysis method
  • Multiple uncertainties-considered natural gas probability-fuzzy energy flow analysis method

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Embodiment 1

[0136] see Figure 1 to Figure 4 , a probabilistic-fuzzy energy flow analysis method for natural gas considering multiple uncertainties, mainly includes the following steps:

[0137] 1) Establish a natural gas system model.

[0138] Further, the natural gas system model mainly includes one balanced node, N unbalanced nodes and M pipelines. φN represents the set where the N unbalanced nodes are located. φM represents the set in which the M pipelines are located.

[0139] The input of the natural gas system model is network structure parameters. The network structure parameters mainly include gas source parameters, gas transmission pipeline parameters, gas load, initial value of pressure borne by internal balance nodes of the pipeline, and node load correlation coefficient matrix.

[0140] The output variables of the natural gas system model mainly include the pressures on unbalanced nodes inside all pipelines and the flow of natural gas in pipelines.

[0141] 2) Establishi...

Embodiment 2

[0261] see Figure 5 to Figure 7 , using a natural gas probabilistic-fuzzy energy flow analysis method considering multiple uncertainties to analyze the energy flow of a natural gas system with 11 nodes, mainly includes the following steps:

[0262] 1) Establish a natural gas system model. The natural gas system has 1 balanced node and 10 unbalanced nodes. The number of pipes in the hot air system is M=14.

[0263] Set the sampling times of Latin hypercube NL=2000, the sampling times of each cut set of α cut set method Nα=2000, the convergence accuracy of Newton method ε=10-6, the maximum number of iterations of Newton method Tmax=50, and the number of possible distribution intervals is C =1000.

[0264] The network data adopts the data of the 11-node natural gas system in the article "Steady state analysis of gas networks with distributed injection of alternative gas" in the volume 164 of "Applied Energy" in 2016. Modify the node number, the balance node number is 0, the ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a multiple uncertainties-considered natural gas probability-fuzzy energy flow analysis method. The method mainly comprises the following steps of: 1) establishing a natural gassystem model; 2) establishing a probability model of non-equilibrium node loads; 3) sampling the probability model of the non-equilibrium node loads by utilizing a Latin hypercube method, so as to obtain an N*NL-dimensional load probability sample matrix; 4) establishing a fuzzy model of pipeline comprehensive parameters; 5) sampling the fuzzy model of the pipeline comprehensive parameters by utilizing a <alpha>-cut set method; 6) calculating a pipeline energy flow and pipeline non-equilibrium node bearing pressure in the natural gas system by utilizing a newton method; and 7) calculating a possibility measure Pos and a necessity measure Nec of an output variable, so as to obtain a credibility function Bel and a verisimilitude function Pl of the output variable. The method combines the influences of two uncertain factors such as probability and fuzziness, and is capable of effectively and correctly calculating change ranges of output variables of natural gas systems.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of natural gas system steady-state energy flow calculation, in particular to a natural gas probability-fuzzy energy flow analysis method considering multiple uncertainties. Background technique [0002] Energy flow calculation, as the basic calculation for solving the state distribution of natural gas, is the basis of natural gas operation and planning. In the actual system, there are often many uncertainties, such as load fluctuations, temperature changes and so on. Their changes usually have a non-negligible impact on system operation. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out related research on uncertain energy flow in natural gas systems. [0003] Existing research on uncertain energy flow mainly considers the uncertainty of energy injected into the system represented by the load, and evaluates its impact on the energy flow distribution of the system, without considering the parameter uncertainty of the...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q50/06G06F17/50G06F17/16G06F17/18
CPCG06F17/16G06F17/18G06Q50/06G06F30/20
Inventor 赵霞胡潇云杨仑孙国荣颜伟
Owner CHONGQING UNIV
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