Hydrological drought forecasting and early warning method based on meteorological drought transmission

A meteorological drought and drought technology, applied in weather forecasting, meteorology, measuring devices, etc., can solve the problems of not many, quantitative analysis is not deep enough and comprehensive, etc., to achieve reduced workload, high practicability and scalability, The effect of risk reduction

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-11-02
HOHAI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] At present, there are not many studies on the response of hydrological drought to meteorological drought at home and abroad. The research on the relationship between hydrological drought and meteorological ...

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  • Hydrological drought forecasting and early warning method based on meteorological drought transmission
  • Hydrological drought forecasting and early warning method based on meteorological drought transmission

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Embodiment Construction

[0021] The present invention will be further described below. The following implementations are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention more clearly, but not to limit the protection scope of the present invention.

[0022] Such as figure 1 As shown, a hydrological drought prediction and early warning method based on meteorological drought transmission, the specific implementation steps are as follows:

[0023] Step 1: Select the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to represent the meteorological drought, and select the standardized runoff index (SSI) to represent the hydrological drought; based on the daily rainfall data of 65 rainfall stations in the basin above Dapoling of the Huaihe River from 1964 to 2005, the Thiessen polygon method was used Calculate the daily surface rainfall and accumulate it into the monthly surface rainfall, and calculate the SPI index of the watershed on a time scale of 1-24 months; based on the daily average flo...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a hydrological drought forecasting and early warning method based on meteorological drought transmission. A standard rainfall index is selected to represent the meteorologicaldrought, and the standardized runoff index is selected to represent the hydrological drought. The drought occurrence time, the drought duration time, the drought duration time, the average drought strength, and the drought intensity are selected to be used for analyzing the drought characteristic from the meteorological drought to the hydrological drought. Based on the calculated SSI index sequence and the SPI index sequence having 1-24 month time scale, the time scale corresponding to the SPI index having the most correlation with the SSI index is determined by adopting a Pearson correlationmethod, and is marked as SPIn. Based on the SSI index sequence and the SPIn index sequence, a response model from the hydrological drought to the meteorological drought is established. Based on a response model having the best fitting degree, the drought characteristic threshold range required by hydrological drought with different drought levels is analyzed and calculated. According to the intensity and duration information of meteorological drought, a plurality of large-strength and long-lasting hydrological drought can be judged in the future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a hydrological drought forecasting and early warning method based on meteorological drought transmission, belonging to the technical field of drought forecasting and early warning. Background technique [0002] Drought disasters are one of the most important natural disasters in my country. Since the 1990s, drought disasters have shown the characteristics of increasing frequency, expanding spatial pattern, prolonging duration, expanding affected areas and increasing disaster losses. Drought is usually divided into four types: meteorological drought, agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and socioeconomic drought. The fifth IPCC assessment report pointed out in terms of extreme values ​​that “the spatiotemporal evolution of hydrological drought needs more attention in response to meteorological drought and related soil drought…, which is of great significance for better forecasting of hydrological drought and effective ide...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10
CPCG01W1/10
Inventor 虞美秀李琼芳
Owner HOHAI UNIV
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