Forecast method for proportion between power generation of photovoltaic power station and power utilization of plant
A technology of photovoltaic power station and forecasting method, applied in photovoltaic power generation, load forecasting in AC network, electrical components, etc., can solve the problem of low accuracy of forecast data
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Embodiment 1
[0101] According to the prediction method of the ratio of the power consumption of the plant area to the power generation of the photovoltaic power station, the estimated ratio of the power consumption of the plant area A to the power generation of the photovoltaic power plant A in the year C is predicted as follows:
[0102] (1) A photovoltaic power station was put into operation in July of C-1 year, that is, m=0.5, and the initial installed capacity Z 0 7500kW, ε 1 2.5%, ε 2 is 0.73%, then, according to the formula (1-3), the installed capacity Z of A photovoltaic power plant is calculated as follows:
[0103] Z=Z 0 ×[1-ε 1 -(m-1)×ε 2 ]=7500×[1-2.5%-(0.5-1)×0.73%]=7339.875kW.
[0104] (2) According to the average radiation dose F of a certain month in the location of the A factory area in the previous five years of the C year in Table 1 n , The installed capacity Z of A photovoltaic power station calculated in step (1) and the formula (1-2) calculate the average daily ...
Embodiment 2
[0131] In this embodiment, the method for predicting the estimated proportion of the electricity consumption of the factory area A and the power generation of the A photovoltaic power station in the year C is as follows:
[0132] (1) According to the average annual actual electricity consumption of A factory area in the five years before C year, the average annual actual electricity consumption of A factory area in the five years before C year is calculated, see Table 1, That is 63934450kWh.
[0133] (2) According to the same method of step (1) and step (2) of embodiment 1, the theoretical power generation W of each month of A photovoltaic power plant in year C is calculated n , as shown in Table 1, according to the monthly theoretical power generation W of A photovoltaic power plant in year C n Summing up, the 12-month theoretical power generation of A photovoltaic power plant in year C is calculated in Table 1, which is 6,120,928 degrees, or 6,120,928 kWh.
[0134] (3) Acc...
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