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Public transport turnover time prediction method and device based on survival analysis

A turnaround time and public transportation technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of inaccurate prediction of bus turnaround time, inaccurate bus arrival reliability, etc., to achieve high accuracy and improve service horizontal effect

Active Publication Date: 2018-11-23
SHANDONG JIAOTONG UNIV
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] Aiming at the deficiencies in the prior art and solving the problem that the bus turnaround time cannot be accurately predicted due to inaccurate bus arrival reliability, the present invention provides a method and device for predicting public transport turnaround time based on survival analysis. The arrival reliability threshold is used as the basis for judging the survival status of bus stops, and the Kaplain-Meier non-parametric method is used to build a model to estimate the survival rate of each stop, and then the Cox proportional hazards regression model is used to analyze the variables in the data. Survival rate, the present invention provides support for more operating parameters for traffic managers to more accurately predict turnaround time

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  • Public transport turnover time prediction method and device based on survival analysis
  • Public transport turnover time prediction method and device based on survival analysis
  • Public transport turnover time prediction method and device based on survival analysis

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Experimental program
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Embodiment 1

[0049] The purpose of this embodiment 1 is to provide a method for predicting the turnaround time of public transport based on survival analysis.

[0050] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme:

[0051] Such as figure 1 as shown,

[0052] A method for predicting public transportation turnaround time based on survival analysis, including:

[0053] Step (1): Receive the operation data of a bus line for a certain period of time and the variable data affecting the operation time during operation;

[0054] Step (2): Preset the arrival reliability threshold, based on the survival analysis method, use the inter-station travel duration in the operation data as the survival duration, judge the life and death of the bus station through the arrival reliability threshold, and establish the inter-station travel duration Model;

[0055] Step (3): Estimate the survival rate of each station in the inter-station travel duration mo...

Embodiment 2

[0100] The purpose of Embodiment 2 is to provide a computer-readable storage medium.

[0101] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme:

[0102] A computer-readable storage medium, in which a plurality of instructions are stored, and the instructions are adapted to be loaded by a processor of a terminal device and perform the following processing:

[0103] Step (1): Receive the operation data of a bus line for a certain period of time and the variable data affecting the operation time during operation;

[0104] Step (2): Preset the arrival reliability threshold, based on the survival analysis method, use the inter-station travel duration in the operation data as the survival duration, judge the life and death of the bus station through the arrival reliability threshold, and establish the inter-station travel duration Model;

[0105] Step (3): Estimate the survival rate of each station in the inter-station travel durati...

Embodiment 3

[0108] The purpose of Embodiment 3 is to provide a terminal device.

[0109] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme:

[0110] A terminal device, including a processor and a computer-readable storage medium, the processor is used to implement instructions; the computer-readable storage medium is used to store multiple instructions, and the instructions are suitable for being loaded by the processor and performing the following processing:

[0111] Step (1): Receive the operation data of a bus line for a certain period of time and the variable data affecting the operation time during operation;

[0112] Step (2): Preset the arrival reliability threshold, based on the survival analysis method, use the inter-station travel duration in the operation data as the survival duration, judge the life and death of the bus station through the arrival reliability threshold, and establish the inter-station travel duration Model;

...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a public transport turnover time prediction method and device based on survival analysis. The method comprises the steps of receiving operation data in a time period of a bus line and variable data influencing the operation time in operation; presetting an arrival reliability threshold value, taking an inter-station running duration in the operation data as a survival duration based on a survival analysis method, judging the survival or extinction of bus stations through the arrival reliability threshold value, and building an inter-station running duration model; estimating a survival rate of each station in the inter-station running duration model through a Kaplain-Meier non-parameter method; and analyzing the influence of the variable data on the survival rate according to a Cox proportional hazard regression model, and in combination with the estimated survival rate, predicting public transport turnover time. When the survival rate is relatively low, a bus dispatching mode is changed for performing remediation. Bus operation information is provided for bus operators; the bus service level is better improved; existing research on bus arrival time is enriched; and a theoretical basis is provided for traffic management and control.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of traffic intelligent management and intelligent control, and in particular relates to a method and device for predicting public traffic turnaround time based on survival analysis. Background technique [0002] The degree of development of public transport is an important indicator of the level of urbanization and an important indicator of urban construction. Public transportation scheduling is an important task in the public transportation system, and the scheduling of public transportation is closely related to the turnaround time of public transportation. However, during the operation of the bus, it will be affected by variables such as road conditions and weather, which will prolong the duration of the bus's inter-stop travel, resulting in a gap between the arrival time of the bus and the planned arrival time, and the reliability of the arrival. Precisely predict bus turnaround time. Therefore, accura...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/30
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/40
Inventor 张萌萌孙芮高超陈翠娇
Owner SHANDONG JIAOTONG UNIV