A short-term output prediction method and device for small run-of-river hydropower
An output forecasting and small hydropower technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of low accuracy of planned output value, difficulty in guaranteeing the accuracy of output change value, and low short-term output accuracy of runoff small hydropower
Active Publication Date: 2022-03-22
YUNNAN POWER GRID CO LTD LINCANG POWER SUPPLY BUREAU
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[0005] This application provides a short-term output prediction method of small run-of-river hydropower to solve the problem that in the typical short-term output prediction method of small run-of-river hydropower, it is necessary to rely on the engineering experience of the staff to obtain the output change value, and the output The accuracy of the change value is difficult to guarantee, and the accuracy of the future planned output value obtained from this is low, which leads to the problem of low accuracy in predicting the short-term output of small run-of-river hydropower
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[0114] In order to make the above objects, features and advantages of the present application more obvious and comprehensible, the present application will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific implementation methods.
[0115] The first embodiment of the present application discloses a short-term output prediction method of run-of-the-river small hydropower. This method is applied to a terminal server, and the terminal server can obtain information in different terminal databases by connecting to the Internet. In this application, the terminal server connects to the Internet to obtain the historical output information of small run-of-river hydropower, the historical weather information of the location of small run-of-river hydropower and the future weather information of the location of small run-of-river hydropower.
[0116] The embodiment part of this application provides a short-term output prediction method of run-of...
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The embodiment of the present application discloses a short-term output prediction method and device for small run-of-river hydropower, wherein the method includes: obtaining historical output information and historical meteorological information of small run-of-river hydropower; calculating the plan according to the historical output information of each historical cycle Output accuracy; according to the historical planned output value, historical actual output value and historical weather information of other periods adjacent to the first target period, obtain the historical planned output correction value of the first target period; according to the historical planned output of the first target period The correction value, the historical planned output value of the second target period, the historical weather information and the future weather information are used to determine the future planned output value of the small run-of-river hydropower station. Using the aforementioned method and device, the future planned output value can be determined according to the historical planned output correction value of the first target period, the historical planned output value of the second target period, historical weather information and future weather information, and the short-term output forecast of small run-of-river hydropower can be improved. accuracy.
Description
technical field [0001] The present application relates to the field of load forecasting, in particular to a short-term output forecasting method and device for small run-of-river hydropower. Background technique [0002] In Northwest Yunnan, China, a large number of runoff small hydropower stations have been built. Runoff small hydropower is a kind of small hydropower station without regulating reservoirs. Therefore, runoff small hydropower relies on river runoff to generate electricity. However, the weather in Northwest Yunnan in my country is subject to frequent changes in weather, and river runoff is greatly affected by meteorological factors, resulting in runoff. The output stability of small hydropower is poor. In the daily operation of small run-of-river hydropower, staff often combine historical output information and future meteorological information to set future planned output values, that is, to predict the short-term output of run-of-river small hydropower, so th...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 杨金东张海涛陶晔李周龙张建李荣明王家华李文娟
Owner YUNNAN POWER GRID CO LTD LINCANG POWER SUPPLY BUREAU