A method for establishing a high-speed train initial delay influence prediction model

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of transportation, and aims at providing a method for establishing a high-speed train initial delay influence prediction model. The invention comprises a method for establishing an initial delay influence train number prediction model and a method for establishing an initial delay influence total time prediction model. The method for establishing an initial delay influence train number prediction model comprises the following steps of: comparing different alternatives of the first machine learning classification model, selecting the final first machine learning classification model, and selecting the final first machine learning classification model as the initial delay affecting train number prediction model. The method for establishing an initial delay influence total time prediction model comprises the following steps of: comparing different alternatives of the second machine learning classification model, selecting the final second machine learning classification model, and selecting the final second machine learning classification model as the initial delay influence total time prediction model. As that model process of the invention is convenient, the number of trains affected by the initial delay and the total time are predicted.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of transportation, in particular to a method for establishing a high-speed train initial delay impact prediction model. Background technique [0002] High-speed railway has a series of advantages such as good safety, fast delivery speed, high punctuality rate, large transportation capacity, and low energy consumption. The development of high-speed railway has greatly alleviated the shortage of transportation capacity and improved the scale and quality of my country's road network. It has played an important supporting role in the sustained and rapid development of the national economy. [0003] However, due to the complex operating environment of high-speed railways, high-speed trains will inevitably be affected by the external environment, internal system mechanical failures, and organizational management during operation, resulting in the actual arrival time of the train (actual departure time) and the plan...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In the actual process, most of the research needs to be based on certain assumptions and preconditions, either to simplify the problem, or to set the delay distribution law or propagation mode in advance, so the established models and algorithms have strict requirements on the scope of use. , but the guidance for the actual production of transportation is insufficient

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