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A Method for Forecasting Load of Thermal Power Plant

A prediction method and technology of thermal power plants, applied in the field of thermal power plants, can solve problems such as online load prediction of thermal power plants, achieve the effects of small calculation, clear physical meaning, and improved utilization

Inactive Publication Date: 2020-11-20
BOHAI UNIV
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The embodiment of the present invention provides an online prediction method of thermal power plant load, aiming at solving the problem of online prediction of thermal power plant load

Method used

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  • A Method for Forecasting Load of Thermal Power Plant
  • A Method for Forecasting Load of Thermal Power Plant
  • A Method for Forecasting Load of Thermal Power Plant

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Embodiment 1

[0025] The embodiment of the present invention provides an online prediction method of thermal power plant load, such as figure 1 shown, including:

[0026] Step S100, obtaining historical thermal power plant load data and performing fractional order accumulation generation transformation to obtain a fractional order accumulation generation sequence of historical thermal power plant loads;

[0027] Step S200, using the thermal power plant load data prediction model to predict the fractional order accumulation generation sequence of the thermal power plant load;

[0028] Step S300 , by performing fractional-order subtraction on the generated sequence of fractional-order accumulation of the predicted thermal power plant load, the on-line predicted value of the thermal power plant load is restored.

[0029] In this embodiment, a small sample of historical thermal power plant load data is used, and the fractional order accumulation generation sequence of historical thermal power ...

Embodiment 2

[0038] The embodiment of the present invention provides an online prediction method of thermal power plant load. On the basis of Embodiment 1, the thermal power plant load data forecasting model is a gray forecasting model of the fractional order accumulation generation sequence for predicting thermal power plant load, and its input is historical The fractional order accumulation generation sequence of thermal power plant load, and its output is the fractional order accumulation generation sequence of predicted thermal power plant load.

[0039] In this example, x (k) =(x (k) (1),x (k) (2),...,x (k) (n)) As the input of the thermal power plant load data forecasting model, the fractional order accumulation sequence of the predicted thermal power plant load is used as is the output of the prediction model, and p is the number of data in the sequence generated by the fractional order accumulation of the predicted thermal power plant load. The thermal power plant load data pr...

Embodiment 3

[0041] The embodiment of the present invention provides an online prediction method of thermal power plant load, such as Figure 4 Shown, on the basis of embodiment 1, the establishment method of thermal power plant load data prediction model is as follows:

[0042] Step S201, determine the reference sequence, the first comparison sequence and the second comparison sequence with the same length; the reference sequence contains the data generated by the fractional accumulation of historical thermal power plant loads from the p+1th to the nth, p+2≤n , p is the number of data in the fractional order accumulation generation sequence of the predicted thermal power plant load, n is the number of data in the fractional order accumulation generation sequence of the obtained historical thermal power plant load data, and the first comparison sequence contains from the initial data to The fractional order cumulative generation data of the n-p historical thermal power plant load, the seco...

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Abstract

The present invention is applicable to the technical field of thermal power plants, and provides an online load prediction method of thermal power plants, comprising: obtaining historical thermal power plant load data and performing fractional accumulation generation transformation to obtain a fractional accumulation generation sequence of historical thermal power plant loads; The power plant load data forecasting model predicts the fractional order accumulation generation sequence of thermal power plant load; by performing fractional order accumulation on the predicted thermal power plant load fractional order accumulation generation sequence, the online prediction value of thermal power plant load is restored, and the present invention can overcome gray Problems that cannot be directly solved for load forecasting, such as the nonlinearity of correlation solution and related constraints, are suitable for forecasting problems with complex parameters and can be extended to multi-system output. It has the characteristics of clear physical meaning, small amount of calculation and high precision.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of thermal power plants, in particular to a load prediction method for thermal power plants. Background technique [0002] In the production process of thermal power plants, load is one of the important parameters for operating units. Fast, effective and accurate load prediction plays an important guiding role in the production and operation scheduling of thermal power plants. It not only helps production enterprises save raw materials and reduce power generation costs, but also plays an auxiliary monitoring and early warning role in equipment fault diagnosis. In the actual production process, the numerical change of thermal power plant unit load is affected by factors such as power grid dispatching, unit equipment operation, water vapor quality, and different working conditions. The overall load fluctuates within a period of time, which also provides great support for mining and forecasting of load data. b...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 杨洋刘慧巍韩志艳赵震单瑜阳张亮杨友林王东
Owner BOHAI UNIV
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