Method for predicting economic output through electricity consumption data

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting economic output through power consumption data, and relates to the technical field of power load prediction. At present, only a linear model is appliedfor quantitative analysis, and the accuracy is low. The method comprises the following steps: carrying out correlation inspection according to data between electricity consumption of each department and industrial development, and obtaining industrial development data related to the electricity consumption; inputting the obtained power consumption data into a first prediction model to obtain a first prediction value corresponding to industrial development; inputting the obtained power consumption data into a second prediction model to obtain a second prediction value corresponding to industrial development; judging a difference value between the first prediction value and the second prediction value, and correcting the first prediction model and the second prediction model when the difference value is greater than a threshold value; and when the difference value is smaller than the threshold value, taking the average value of the first predicted value and the second predicted value asa predicted value corresponding to industry development. According to the technical scheme, the nonlinear regression model is adopted, the two prediction models are comprehensively monitored, and theprecision and the accuracy are effectively improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power load forecasting, in particular to a method for forecasting economic output through power consumption data. Background technique [0002] Electricity is an important foundation of the national economy. Electricity production has a strong response to industries that use electric energy as an important means of production, and this response is embodied in the direct effect of industrial production and electricity consumption. The market mechanism and policy regulation in the process of economic operation have promoted the development and progress of some or even all industries, making each industry gradually transform from high energy consumption to low energy consumption, and low profit to high profit. Changes in industrial structure mean changes in power consumption patterns. It can be seen that the fluctuation of power load is closely related to the change of macro economy, and it is of great sig...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, at the present stage, economists only use linear models for quantitative analysis, and the accuracy rate is low, which is not enough to predict industry economic growth from electricity consumption

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