Method for predicting residual life probability of lithium battery based on gray model
A grey model and probabilistic prediction technology, applied in the direction of measuring electricity, measuring devices, measuring electrical variables, etc., it can solve the problems of limited long-term prediction accuracy, and a single model cannot reflect the phenomenon of capacity regeneration, so as to reduce the prediction error.
Inactive Publication Date: 2019-08-30
TIANJIN UNIV
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[0006] Aiming at the problem that a single model cannot reflect the phenomenon of capacity regeneration and the accuracy of long-term prediction is limited, this application provides a method for predicting the probability of remaining life of lithium batteries based on the gray model
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[0016] The present invention will be described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described here are only used to explain the present invention, not to limit the present invention.
[0017] It should be noted that the "connection" mentioned in this application and the words used to express "connection", such as "connected", "connected", etc., include not only a direct connection between a certain component and another component, but also a certain One part is connected to another part through other parts.
[0018] It should be noted that the terminology used here is only for describing specific implementations, and is not intended to limit the exemplary implementations according to the present application. As used herein, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, the singular form is also intended to include the plural form. In addition, it should also be u...
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The invention discloses a method for predicting the residual life probability of a lithium battery based on a gray model. The method comprises the following steps: simulating the integral attenuationtrend of the capacity by using the gray model, simulating the fluctuation caused by the capacity regeneration phenomenon by using a Markov chain, and inputting the sum of the two outputs which acts asan initial prediction result into an RVM model, wherein the output of the RVM model is a final prediction result. The RVM model can reduce the prediction deviation, and can provide a confidence interval, namely a RUL value range with higher probability, so that an important basis is provided for preventing the occurrence of battery failure faults. The method for predicting the residual life probability of the lithium battery based on the gray model has the advantages that firstly, the error correction is carried out on the overall trend predicted by the gray model by using the Markov chain, and the capacity regeneration phenomenon is simulated; and secondly, the RVM model further reduces prediction errors and provides a probability prediction result.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of lithium battery measurement, in particular to a gray model-based method for predicting the probability of remaining life of lithium batteries. Background technique [0002] Lithium batteries have been widely used in industrial fields such as aerospace, electric vehicles, and photovoltaic power grids due to their high operating voltage, high energy density, low self-discharge rate, and environmental protection. However, the aging failure of the battery will affect the normal operation of the entire system, and even lead to serious safety accidents. Remaining useful life (RUL), as the core and main challenge of failure prediction and health management (PHM) management, is a measure of the reliability of a battery during its life cycle. It is generally believed that when the battery capacity declines to 80% of the rated capacity, the life of the battery is terminated (End of Life, EOL). RUL refers to the n...
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IPC IPC(8): G01R31/367G01R31/392
CPCG01R31/367G01R31/392
Inventor 程泽郭佩瑶程思璐
Owner TIANJIN UNIV