Comprehensive evaluation method for dengue risk

Abstract

The invention provides a comprehensive evaluation method for a dengue risk. The method comprises the steps that dengue case data, mosquito-borne data, meteorological data, map data, environment factordata, social economy data, demography data and surrounding country or area epidemic situation data are collected; a basic risk value, a nearby risk value and a future prediction risk value are calculated, and weight coefficients of the three risk values are calculated; the comprehensive evaluation method is established, and a total dengue risk value is calculated; with reference to meteorologicaldisaster level early warning, the total risk value is evaluated for the dengue risk, and grading is conducted; based on a generalized addition model, a smooth function can be used for conducting non-linear processing on variables; the variables such as meteorological factors, dengue case numbers and mosquito-borne factors are comprehensively considered and comprise more information related to attack; in combination with the three risk values, a dengue risk evaluation model is established, the dengue spreading risk is identified at multiple angles, the influence of multiple factors on dengue spreading is comprehensively considered, and the accuracy of dengue risk evaluation is effectively improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of infectious disease risk assessment methods, in particular to a dengue fever risk comprehensive assessment method. Background technique [0002] Dengue fever is an acute infectious disease caused by dengue virus, which is mainly transmitted through the bite of Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus; about 390 million people in the world are infected with dengue fever every year; over the past fifty years, the incidence of dengue fever has increased globally More than 30 times the increase, involving more than 100 countries in Southeast Asia, the Americas, the Western Pacific, and Africa; dengue fever has the characteristics of rapid spread, high incidence, general susceptibility of the population, and high mortality of severe types, and has become a major global public health problem. Therefore, how to scientifically construct a dengue fever risk assessment model and predict the risk value of future months in advance wil...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] The risk assessment process of infectious diseases mainly includes three parts. First, determine the index system for risk assessment, then use the index system to predict the risk, and finally verify and evaluate the assessment results. At present, new methods of dengue fever risk assessment are emerging at home and abroad. , such as early warning of dengue fever risk based on traditional dengue fever case surveillance data, qualitative assessment methods such as Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process, and the method of assessing dengue fever epidemic risk using mosquito vector surveillance data, but there are certain limitations; At the same time, since the current dengue fever risk assessment models are mostly based on a single assessment method and a single risk, it is difficult to conduct an accurate risk assessment only by simply including the number of cases included in the early warning; , a report integrating qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for dengue

[0004] Therefore, the existing technology still needs to be improved and developed

Images