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Combined prediction method based on least squares and combined weight fitting

A technique of least squares and combined forecasting, applied in the field of combined forecasting based on least squares and combined weight fitting, can solve problems such as inaccurate forecasting, and achieve high forecasting accuracy, good universality, and good coal taxation effects

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-11-22
HUBEI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0007] In view of this, the present invention provides a combined forecasting method based on least squares and combined weight fitting to solve or at least partially solve the technical problem of inaccurate forecasting in the methods of the prior art

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  • Combined prediction method based on least squares and combined weight fitting
  • Combined prediction method based on least squares and combined weight fitting
  • Combined prediction method based on least squares and combined weight fitting

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Embodiment Construction

[0046] Aiming at the characteristics of singleness of tax forecasting in the tax field, the present invention proposes a combined forecasting method. On the basis of single forecasting model forecasting data, the least squares method is used to fit the forecasting data, and then the accuracy rate of the forecasting data and the fitting data is used to allocate corresponding The weight of the unknown situation is comprehensively predicted, thereby improving the accuracy of the prediction.

[0047] Although in the prior art, some methods adopt the method of weighted combination model, for example, the literature "A Cost Combination Prediction Method and Prediction Device for UHV Power Transmission and Transformation Project" and the literature "A Power Load Based on Variable Weight Combination Forecasting Method" Short-term forecasting methods" all use the weighted combination model, but in this way, the forecast data of a single model is not further processed (such as fitting), ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a combined prediction method based on least square and combined weight fitting. The method comprises the steps: firstly collecting original data, taking the original data as aprediction data sample, and dividing the prediction data sample into a to-be-processed data sample and an inspection data sample; secondly, predicting the to-be-processed data sample by utilizing at least two single prediction models to obtain corresponding prediction data; fitting each group of prediction data by adopting a least square method to obtain a fitting formula corresponding to each group of prediction data, and calculating fitting data according to the corresponding fitting formula; and finally, performing weight proportion distribution on each group of prediction data and the corresponding fitting data, constructing a combined prediction model, and predicting a to-be-processed data sample by utilizing the combined prediction model. The method provided by the invention can perform comprehensive prediction on unknown conditions and improve the prediction accuracy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of tax forecasting, in particular to a combined forecasting method based on least squares and combined weight fitting. Background technique [0002] At present, in the field of coal taxation, tax revenue directly affects the related plans of future coal mining and storage. [0003] In the prior art, a single algorithm is generally used for prediction. [0004] In the process of implementing the present invention, the inventor of the present application found that the method of the prior art has at least the following technical problems: [0005] In the existing forecasting algorithms, a single algorithm can only predict from a specific aspect, which has limitations and particularities. Therefore, in the process of use, when a single algorithm does not meet its model, a large prediction error will occur, and The change of data volume in actual engineering is related to many factors, and almost does not foll...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q40/00G06N3/04G06N3/08
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q40/00G06N3/084G06N3/044
Inventor 钟志峰丁岚王时绘
Owner HUBEI UNIV
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