Construction method and prediction method of industry electric quantity demand prediction model

A technology of demand forecasting and construction method, applied in the field of power system, can solve the problems to be improved, and achieve the effect of strong applicability and feasibility, and improvement of forecasting accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2020-04-10
南方电网能源发展研究院有限责任公司
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, the accuracy of electricity demand prediction under the existing technology still needs to be improved,

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  • Construction method and prediction method of industry electric quantity demand prediction model
  • Construction method and prediction method of industry electric quantity demand prediction model
  • Construction method and prediction method of industry electric quantity demand prediction model

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[0047] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0048] It should be understood that when used in this specification and the appended claims, the terms "comprising" and "comprises" indicate the presence of described features, integers, steps, operations, elements and / or components, but do not exclude one or Presence or addition of multiple other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components and / or collections thereof.

[0049] It should also be understood that the terminology used in the description...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a construction method and prediction method of an industry electric quantity demand prediction model. The construction method of the industry electric quantity demand prediction model comprises the steps that: the first leading factor of industry electric quantity increase is obtained according to a set industry electric quantity correlation analysis program, wherein the industry electric quantity correlation analysis program is a combination of a correlation rule mining program and a principal component analysis program; according to a pre-established historical industry electric quantity correlation analysis data set, the second dominant factor of the industry electric quantity increase is extracted; and according to the first dominant factor and the second dominant factor, an ARIMA model and the multiple regression model are corrected and coupled, so that the industry electric quantity demand prediction model is obtained. Compared with a traditional method, the method has the advantages of greatly improved prediction precision, high applicability and feasibility, can be popularized to other industries.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power systems, in particular to a construction method and a prediction method of an industry electricity demand prediction model. Background technique [0002] Power demand forecasting is an important basis for formulating power balance and energy layout planning. With the advancement of my country's supply-side reform, regional power consumption urgently needs a more refined forecasting model. At present, there are mainly gray model, linear regression model, BP neural network and vector error correction model in the prediction methods of industry electricity demand. [0003] However, the accuracy of electricity demand prediction under the existing technology still needs to be improved, and the accuracy of electricity demand prediction is of great significance to the economic operation of the power system. Contents of the invention [0004] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/067G06Q50/06
Inventor 董楠席云华姜颖达
Owner 南方电网能源发展研究院有限责任公司
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