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Analysis method of early risk situation of infectious disease epidemic based on input-diffusion function

A technology of diffusion function and analysis method, which is applied in the field of early risk situation analysis of infectious disease epidemics based on input-diffusion function, can solve problems such as limiting the accuracy and application scope of the model, ignoring changes in time-space dynamic information, etc., to achieve effective decision support, The effect of fast and accurate monitoring

Active Publication Date: 2020-07-17
GUANGZHOU INST OF GEOGRAPHY GUANGDONG ACAD OF SCI
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Problems solved by technology

The spatio-temporal spread of infectious diseases reflects the dynamic process of the game between humans and infectious diseases. The traditional trend judgment technical path is based on a variety of assumptions, and the parameters are set as constants, ignoring the spatio-temporal dynamic information in the process of disease transmission Changes, which limit the accuracy and application range of the model in the actual application process

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  • Analysis method of early risk situation of infectious disease epidemic based on input-diffusion function
  • Analysis method of early risk situation of infectious disease epidemic based on input-diffusion function
  • Analysis method of early risk situation of infectious disease epidemic based on input-diffusion function

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Embodiment 1

[0055] The present invention will be further elaborated below in conjunction with a specific embodiment. In this embodiment, the data of COVID-19 in Guangdong Province from January 19, 2020 to February 3, 2020 are used for simulation and judgment.

[0056] The first step is to identify the scale of infectious disease input risk sources.

[0057] According to the current consensus obtained in various epidemiological fields, the average period from the incubation period to onset of COVID-19 is 7-14 days, and 7 days are taken in this example. Therefore, from January 12, 2020 to February 3, 2020, the total number of people who came to Guangdong Province from the epidemic area and the daily incidence rate of the epidemic area were collected. The total number of people in Guangdong Province is multiplied by the incidence rate of the epidemic area to obtain the daily scale of potential imported risk sources.

[0058] The second step is to simulate the spread function of the risk sou...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for analyzing the risk situation of an early epidemic situation of an infectious disease based on an input-diffusion function, comprising the following steps: step 1, identifying the scale of the input risk source of an infectious disease; step 2, simulating the spread function of the risk source; step 3, the epidemic situation Risk situation short-term forecast. The present invention integrates population flow big data trend judgment and disease spread law, first explores the differences in incidence rates in different regions in the spatial dimension to describe the disease distribution pattern, and analyzes the scale and trend of population flow between regions based on the population flow big data, and then, based on Population flow estimates the scale of potential imported risk cases, counts the functional relationship between the number of potential imported cases and the cumulative number of local confirmed cases, reveals the development characteristics and internal laws of the epidemic, monitors the development of the epidemic concisely, quickly and accurately, and predicts its future epidemic risk development trend , which can provide more accurate, longer-lasting and more effective decision-making support for the prevention and control of infectious diseases.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of spatial epidemiology and public health emergency decision-making, and in particular relates to an early risk situation analysis method of an infectious disease epidemic based on an input-diffusion function. Background technique [0002] Major infectious diseases have become major public health events that threaten public safety and social stability. How to quickly, accurately, and quantitatively assess the stage of the epidemic, the effects of control measures, and predict future trends has become a challenge for the government, the scientific community, and the public. Great and urgent tasks ahead. In the early stage of a new infectious disease outbreak, it is very important to grasp the risk development trend of infectious diseases, especially the effective estimation of the epidemic situation over time is the key to epidemic prevention. Accurately grasping the epidemic dynamics is the basis for changing from pas...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80
CPCG16H50/80
Inventor 宫清华刘博文杨骥邓应斌严滢伟叶玉瑶
Owner GUANGZHOU INST OF GEOGRAPHY GUANGDONG ACAD OF SCI
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