The invention discloses a method for analyzing the risk situation of an early epidemic situation of an infectious disease based on an input-diffusion function, comprising the following steps: step 1, identifying the scale of the input risk source of an infectious disease; step 2, simulating the spread function of the risk source; step 3, the epidemic situation Risk situation short-term forecast. The present invention integrates population flow big data trend judgment and disease spread law, first explores the differences in incidence rates in different regions in the spatial dimension to describe the disease distribution pattern, and analyzes the scale and trend of population flow between regions based on the population flow big data, and then, based on Population flow estimates the scale of potential imported risk cases, counts the functional relationship between the number of potential imported cases and the cumulative number of local confirmed cases, reveals the development characteristics and internal laws of the epidemic, monitors the development of the epidemic concisely, quickly and accurately, and predicts its future epidemic risk development trend , which can provide more accurate, longer-lasting and more effective decision-making support for the prevention and control of infectious diseases.