A method for forecasting runoff under the influence of upstream reservoir groups using forecast errors
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A runoff and error technology, applied in the field of hydrological forecasting, to achieve the effects of easy acquisition, improved runoff forecast accuracy, and high precision
Active Publication Date: 2021-07-27
CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for forecasting runoff under the influence of upstream reservoir groups by using forecast errors, so as to solve the aforementioned problems in the prior art
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Embodiment 1
[0041] Such as figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a method for forecasting runoff under the influence of upstream reservoir groups by using forecast errors, and the method includes the following steps,
[0042] S1. Collect data;
[0043] S2. Based on the collected data, use the known hydrological model and KNN model to establish a forecasting model for the impact of regulation and storage;
[0044] S3. Combine the collected data to drive the hydrological model to predict the future runoff;
[0045] S4. Obtain the forecast error of the previous period;
[0046] S5. According to the forecast error in the previous period, combined with the estimation model of the influence quantity of regulation and storage, obtain the estimated value of the influence quantity of regulation and storage in the future;
[0047] S6. The future runoff is superimposed on the estimated value of the impact of future regulation and storage to obtain the forecasted value of runoff in the futur...
Embodiment 2
[0080] In this embodiment, the Danjiangkou Reservoir is selected as the research object, and the period for testing the forecast effect is from July 1, 2016 to July 31, 2016. The purpose of the forecast is to obtain the daily-scale runoff with a forecast period of 1 day; implementation process of the method.
[0081] 1. Collect information; the information to be collected is shown in the following table (due to too much information, only part of the information is displayed):
[0082]
[0083] 2. Establish a forecasting model for the impact of regulation and storage;
[0084] Since the selected forecasting effect test time is from July 1, 2016 to July 31, 2016, the precipitation data from January 1, 2009 to June 30, 2016 are selected to drive the hydrological model to obtain historical forecast information, combined with The runoff data from January 1, 2009 to June 30, 2016 were used to jointly establish the estimation model of the impact of regulation and storage. The spe...
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for forecasting runoff under the influence of upstream reservoir groups by using forecast errors, including: collecting data; using known hydrological models and KNN models to establish a forecasting model for the amount of regulation and storage impact based on the collected data; combining the collected data The data-driven hydrological model to predict the future runoff; obtain the forecast error of the previous period; according to the forecast error of the previous period, combined with the estimation model of the impact of regulation and storage, obtain the estimated value of the impact of regulation and storage in the future; combine the future runoff with The estimated value of future regulation and storage impact is superimposed to obtain the runoff forecast value in the future period. The advantage is that by using the forecast error at the last moment, it can indirectly reflect the law of the water storage and discharge of the reservoir group, establish the correlation between the forecast error and the change in the runoff caused by the storage and discharge of the reservoir, and carry out the forecasting results of the forecast model for the impact of the regulation and storage. Amended to achieve the purpose of carrying out runoff forecast under the influence of reservoirs without directly obtaining the water storage and release plans of upstream reservoirs.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of hydrological forecasting, in particular to a method for forecasting runoff under the influence of upstream reservoir groups by using forecasting errors. Background technique [0002] Accurate hydrological forecasting is the premise of carrying out flood control and drought relief, promoting profit dispatching, and has high economic and social value. With the continuous advancement of human science and technology, human beings have become more and more capable of transforming nature. Building reservoirs to supply water to cities and using hydropower resources to generate electricity is a manifestation of human beings transforming and utilizing nature. [0003] At present, my country has more than 100,000 reservoir projects, which is the country with the largest number of reservoirs in the world. A large number of reservoirs have brought convenience to my country's economic development, but they have also d...
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