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Traffic accident influence factor space effect analysis method and application thereof

A technology of influencing factors and traffic accidents, applied in the field of traffic safety, can solve problems such as insufficient consideration of spatial spillover effects, insufficient research on spatial autocorrelation of traffic accidents, and inability to quantitatively describe the impact of accidents in target areas, so as to achieve harmony and stability and promote development Effect

Active Publication Date: 2020-08-04
TIANJIN UNIV OF TECH & EDUCATION TEACHER DEV CENT OF CHINA VOCATIONAL TRAINING & GUIDANCE
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

[0008] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the following problems in the prior art: the traditional traffic accident influencing factors analysis is insufficient for the spatial autocorrelation of traffic accidents, and the spatial spillover effect of the accident affecting factors is insufficiently considered, and the influence in the adjacent area cannot be quantitatively described. Based on the analysis of the spatial autocorrelation of traffic accidents, in addition to describing the influence of various factors in the target area on accidents, it can also It can quantitatively describe the spatial spillover effect of the influencing factors in the adjacent area on the occurrence of accidents in the target area and the characteristics of the total spatial effect

Method used

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  • Traffic accident influence factor space effect analysis method and application thereof
  • Traffic accident influence factor space effect analysis method and application thereof
  • Traffic accident influence factor space effect analysis method and application thereof

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Experimental program
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Embodiment 1

[0047] The preferred embodiments shown will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the technical solutions and accompanying drawings.

[0048] Such as figure 1 As shown, a spatial effect analysis method of traffic accident influencing factors, including steps:

[0049] In the first step, the division of urban space research areas can be carried out according to different division principles, specifically, there are various division methods such as urban areas, counties, streets, traffic districts, zip code areas, and census areas. In the preferred embodiment of this paper, the traffic area is used as the division of the research space, and 3356 drunk driving traffic accidents in a certain city are extracted as the research objects. Based on the statistical yearbook of the city and the sixth national township census data, the population data are extracted as the demographic characteristics. Based on the high The German API interface collects the data of point...

Embodiment 2

[0080] Application of a spatial effect analysis method for traffic accident influencing factors as described in Example 1 in the identification of key influencing factors of traffic accidents, the data of influencing factors in the research area to be predicted are input into the optimal space obtained by the analysis method described in Example 1 The Durbin model identifies the key influencing factors of traffic accidents in the spatial area to be predicted, so as to propose different traffic accident prediction, management and control strategies for different cities or different regions of the same city.

[0081] The direct effect, spillover effect and total effect of explanatory variables in the optimal SDM model calculated based on Matlab software are shown in Table 6. Based on the model t test results (i.e. t statistics), the key explanatory variables affecting the occurrence of drunk driving accidents in this region (the t statistics variable in the direct effect is signi...

Embodiment 3

[0088] When predicting the frequency of traffic accidents based on linear and nonlinear models such as traditional linear regression models and neural network models, in addition to considering the influencing factors of the predicted target area, the impact of the adjacent area’s influencing factors on the occurrence of accidents should also be included in the prediction. The model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of the model.

[0089] For example, when using a linear regression model or a neural network model to predict the frequency of drunk driving traffic accidents, the data of multiple traffic districts in a certain spatial area are collected; the key influencing factors of this area and adjacent areas obtained in Example 2 are used as explanatory variables for training and learning Modeling, determining the coefficients of the model explanatory variables, substituting the data of key influencing factors in the area to be predicted and adjacent areas into ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a traffic accident influence factor spatial effect analysis method, which comprises the following steps of: dividing a spatial research area of a traffic accident to obtain anexplanatory variable and an explanatory variable required by modeling; deleting unreasonable interpreted variables; constructing different types of spatial weight matrixes for representing the incidence relation between the research areas; performing spatial autocorrelation inspection; constructing an OLS model, adjusting the goodness-of-fit value to be maximum through an F test, deleting explanatory variables which do not pass the t test, and reconstructing the OLS model; performing Lagrange multiplier test on the residual error of the OLS model; re-incorporating the deleted explanatory variables, constructing a plurality of spatial Dorbin models, and selecting an optimal spatial Dorbin model and a final explanatory variable; and carrying out quantitative analysis on the spatial effect ofthe traffic accident influence factors in the region. According to the method, the spatial effect of traffic accident influence factors is quantitatively analyzed, and a decision basis is provided for traffic safety planning and management.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of traffic safety, in particular to macro-traffic accident prediction, in particular to a spatial effect analysis method of traffic accident influencing factors considering spatial spillover effect and its application in identification of traffic accident influencing factors and its application in the occurrence of traffic accidents. Applications in frequency prediction. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of social economy and the continuous improvement of motorization level, road traffic accidents have become the most extensive and serious social harm. All over the world, the occurrence of traffic accidents has brought great harm to people's lives and property safety. The common process of traditional traffic accident analysis is to discover the black spot of the accident, analyze the cause of the accident, implement safety improvement, and conduct safety evaluation in four st...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06F17/18G08G1/01
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06F17/18G08G1/0104
Inventor 王少华杜峰肖金坚刘卓陈艳艳
Owner TIANJIN UNIV OF TECH & EDUCATION TEACHER DEV CENT OF CHINA VOCATIONAL TRAINING & GUIDANCE
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