Water-energy-grain link relationship prediction method based on resource life cycle process

Abstract

The invention discloses a water-energy-grain link relationship prediction method based on a resource life cycle process. The method comprises the following steps: determining water resource, energy and grain supply amount of a prediction year through a life cycle theory and a gray prediction model; calculating the total demand of water resources, energy and grains in the predicted year; and calculating the water resource, energy or grain satisfaction degree of the prediction year, wherein the satisfaction degree is the ratio of the supply amount to the total demand amount. According to the prediction method, a life cycle theory and a grey prediction model are combined, the link relation among water, energy and grain is fully considered, the problems that an existing mathematical model method is not comprehensive in consideration and low in prediction precision are solved, multiple resource production and consumption schemes can be put together to be calculated and compared, and the difference of different resource production and consumption schemes is objectively quantified.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a water-energy-food bond relationship prediction method, in particular to a water-energy-grain bond relationship prediction method based on the resource life cycle process, which belongs to the field of natural resource management. Background technique [0002] Water, energy, and food are indispensable resources for the production and life of human society. In the process of economic and social development, water, energy, and food are interdependent and interdependent. In the context of global population growth, resource shortage, and environmental degradation, the research on the relationship between water-energy-food has become an important topic in the field of sustainable development. In November 2011, the German Federal Government held the "Water-Energy-Food Security Nexus Conference" in Bonn, pointing out for the first time that there is a complex "bond relationship" between water, energy and food. [0003] From the per...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] Purpose of the invention: This invention aims to provide a combination of life cycle theory and gray prediction model, fully consider the relationship between water, energy and food, and overcome the problems of incomplete consideration and low prediction accuracy of existing mathematical model methods , and can put multiple resource production and consumption schemes together for calculation and comparison, and objectively quantify the differences between different resource production and consumption schemes. The water-energy-food bond relationship prediction method based on the resource life cycle process

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