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Design flood estimation method and system based on equal reliability under climate change scenarios

A technology for climate change and design floods, applied in design optimization/simulation, instrumentation, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as the difficulty of meeting the consistency of hydrological extreme value series, and achieve the effect of strong operability

Active Publication Date: 2022-08-05
WUHAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

The consistency of hydrological extreme value series under climate change is difficult to meet, and the existing technology fails to fully consider the non-uniform design flood under future climate models

Method used

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  • Design flood estimation method and system based on equal reliability under climate change scenarios
  • Design flood estimation method and system based on equal reliability under climate change scenarios
  • Design flood estimation method and system based on equal reliability under climate change scenarios

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Embodiment Construction

[0046] In order to make the objectives, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention, but not to limit the present invention. In addition, the technical features involved in the various embodiments of the present invention described below can be combined with each other as long as there is no conflict with each other.

[0047] The invention discloses a design flood estimation method and system based on equal reliability under climate change scenarios. The future rainfall and runoff sequences are obtained by simulating M global climate model sets (Global Climate Models, GCMs), and obtained by principal component analysis. The optimal extreme rainfall index that affects the causes of floods, and then constructs the t...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a design flood estimation method and system based on equal reliability under climate change scenarios, belonging to the field of reservoir flood control safety design, and obtains future climate change based on a global climate model output and a two-stage deviation correction method considering the correlation of meteorological variables Scenarios, driving the VIC distributed hydrological model to obtain the runoff scenarios under the influence of climate change, using the principal component analysis method to select the extreme rainfall index that affects the flood characteristics as a covariate, and considering the inconsistency of the flood sequence to construct a time-varying hydrological frequency analysis model. Based on the equal reliability method, the combination of flood design values ​​under climate change scenarios was deduced, and the most probable value was used as the final design value, and the 95% confidence interval was selected to estimate its uncertainty. The present invention can fully consider the influence of climate change on flood characteristics, and can provide an important and highly operable reference basis for inferring adaptive design floods under climate change scenarios.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reservoir flood control safety design, and more particularly relates to a design flood estimation method and system based on an equal reliability method under climate change scenarios. Background technique [0002] Design flood is an important basis for determining the construction scale of water conservancy and hydropower projects and formulating operation and management strategies, and is of great significance for guiding reservoir operation and scheduling and comprehensive planning and utilization of water resources. Because climate change affects the hydrological cycle process and changes the temporal and spatial distribution of hydrological extremes (such as floods) in different periods, how to infer the adaptive design of floods under climate change scenarios has become a current research difficulty. [0003] In recent years, the research on this issue at home and abroad is mainly divided into two c...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06F119/02
CPCG06F30/20G06F2119/02
Inventor 顾磊陈杰尹家波郭强李翔泉
Owner WUHAN UNIV
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