Course prediction method of unknown intention flight path

Abstract

The invention discloses a course prediction method for an unknown intention flight path, and the method comprises the steps: firstly carrying out the preprocessing of an obtained flight data sample, and carrying out the homogenization of the sampling time interval of the data sample; then analyzing correlation coefficients between possible to-be-selected input variables and output variables of a sample, selecting the to-be-selected input variables with high correlation contribution degrees as input characteristic variables of the prediction model, wherein the selected input characteristic variables of the prediction model include historical differential sequence data of the course, differential data of the current speed and differential data of the current course; finally, fusing a plurality of course differential historical data by adopting an AR model, and giving an estimated value of course change at the next moment; and taking the estimated value output by the AR model, the differential data of the current course and the differential data of the current speed as input, and predicting the course state of the next moment by adopting a naive Bayes classifier.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of aviation control, and in particular relates to a heading prediction method for an unknown flight trajectory. Background technique [0002] In recent years, the radar screen in the Sanya control area shows that the number of aircraft flying with unknown intentions in the oceanic area has continued to increase, which has restricted and affected the original range of activities and flight paths of civil aviation aircraft, and greatly increased the control workload. A certain type of aircraft has no flight plan, and the trajectory formed by the great uncertainty of flight activities and the ambiguity of its intention is called the unidentified intention flight trajectory, which poses a serious threat to the safety of civil aviation flight. In order to accurately assess the impact of such aircraft, it is necessary to predict its unknown intention flight trajectory, and further study the impact prediction proba...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, this method also has shortcomings. First, due to the complexity of the method, prediction delays may occur; second, because this method is mainly for planning trajectory prediction, it cannot better track the current model of the aircraft, which may lead to a decrease in prediction accuracy.

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