Method for predicting influence probability of unknown intentional flight path on airways

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting the influence probability of an unknown intention flight path on an air route, and the method comprises the steps: firstly carrying out the preprocessing of an obtained flight data sample, and then analyzing a possible correlation coefficient between a to-be-selected input variable and an output variable of the sample; selecting a to-be-selected input variable with high correlation contribution degree as an input characteristic variable of the prediction model, fusing a plurality of course differential historical data by adopting an AR model, andgiving an estimated value of course change at the next moment; taking the estimated value output by the AR model, the differential data of the current course and the differential data of the currentspeed as input, and adopting a naive Bayes classifier to carry out probability prediction on the course state at the next moment; and finally, according to the probability of the course state of the unknown intention flight path at the next moment predicted in the step 3, calculating the prediction probability of the influence of the unknown intention flight path on the specified air route. The method can effectively predict the prediction probability of the influence of the aircraft with unknown intention on the flight route of the civil aircraft, and takes the prediction probability as earlywarning judgment.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of aviation control, and in particular relates to a method for predicting the probability of influence of an unknown flight track on an air route. Background technique [0002] In recent years, the radar screen in the Sanya control area shows that the number of aircraft flying with unknown intentions in the oceanic area has continued to increase, which has restricted and affected the original range of activities and flight paths of civil aviation aircraft, and greatly increased the control workload. A certain type of aircraft has no flight plan, and the trajectory formed by the great uncertainty of flight activities and the ambiguity of its intention is called the unidentified intention flight trajectory, which poses a serious threat to the safety of civil aviation flight. In order to accurately assess the impact of such aircraft, it is necessary to predict its unknown intention flight trajectory, and furthe...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, this method also has shortcomings. First, due to the complexity of the method, prediction delays may occur; second, because this method is mainly for planning trajectory prediction, it cannot better track the current model of the aircraft, which may lead to a decrease in prediction accuracy.

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