Singular spectrum analysis-based landslide mass displacement prediction method

A prediction method and singular spectrum technology, applied in the field of geological disaster detection and prediction, can solve the problems of difficult multi-source heterogeneous influence factor coordination, dynamic prediction, etc.

Pending Publication Date: 2021-01-26
XI'AN POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY
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Problems solved by technology

[0007] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a landslide body displacement prediction method based on singular spectrum analysis, which solves the problem in the prior art that it is difficult to integrate multi-source heterogeneous influencing factors for collaborative and dynamic prediction

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  • Singular spectrum analysis-based landslide mass displacement prediction method
  • Singular spectrum analysis-based landslide mass displacement prediction method
  • Singular spectrum analysis-based landslide mass displacement prediction method

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Embodiment

[0163] 1) Cumulative displacement map of the study area; Figure 5 shown. The original displacement time series data set of the landslide research area is used as the input of the SSA algorithm, and the influence of random fluctuation items on the experimental results is eliminated. figure 2 . Based on the SSA algorithm, the displacement subsequence of the trend item is extracted to obtain the time-displacement curve trend graph.

[0164] 2) Use Gaussian fitting to perform nonlinear curve approximation fitting on the displacement extraction value of the trend item. When the number of iterations reaches 400, the fitting converges, reaching a Chi-sqr tolerance value of 1E-9, indicating high accuracy and repeatability it is good. Fit related parameter configurations and trend item time-displacement prediction curves such as image 3 As shown, using the square root of Reduced Chi-Sqr to scale the standard errors, the adjusted R 2 = 0.98235. The experimental results show tha...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a singular spectrum analysis-based landslide mass displacement prediction method. The method is specifically implemented according to the following steps of performing data preprocessing on a time sequence by utilizing a spectral decomposition theory and an embedded reconstruction theory of singular spectrum analysis to obtain the accumulated landslide displacement data; removing the trend term displacement from the accumulated displacement to obtain the periodic term displacement; adopting Gaussian fitting to perform fitting prediction on the trend term displacement; selecting influence factors from the predicted trend term displacement by adopting a rapid multi-principal-component parallel extraction algorithm, and selecting the LSTM model related parameters by utilizing a Bayesian optimization algorithm; constructing a training set, a verification set and a prediction set, and establishing an LSTM network model to predict the periodic item displacement; and according to a time sequence decomposition principle, superposing the predicted values of the displacement sub-sequences to obtain a final predicted value of the displacement, thereby finishing the landslide body displacement prediction method. According to the present invention, the problem that multi-source heterogeneous influence factors are difficult to fuse for collaborative and dynamic forecasting in the prior art, is solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of geological disaster detection and prediction, and relates to a method for predicting landslide body displacement based on singular spectrum analysis. Background technique [0002] According to the 2008-2018 National Geological Disaster Notification Annual Report (excluding Hong Kong, Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province) issued by the Ministry of Land and Resources of China (now the Ministry of Natural Resources), in the past ten years, the average number of geological disasters occurred each year was more than 152,000 Among them, landslide disasters accounted for 66% on average, landslides accounted for 22% on average, and debris flow geological disasters accounted for 6% on average, resulting in a total of 5,853 deaths and direct economic losses of more than 47 billion yuan. Landslide geological disasters are closely related to local people's lives, property safety and national econom...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06K9/00G06K9/62G06N3/04G06F17/16
CPCG06F17/16G06N3/049G06N3/044G06F2218/04G06F18/25G06F18/214
Inventor 李丽敏张明岳温宗周郭伏张俊何洋魏雄伟
Owner XI'AN POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY
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