Multi-scenario road traffic energy saving and emission reduction prediction method based on leap model

Abstract

The invention provides a multi-scenario road traffic energy saving and emission reduction prediction method based on the LEAP model, which includes the following steps: setting social conditions to obtain a motor vehicle growth rate close to real data; building an energy demand model and an energy demand model structure Mainly divided into four branches, statistics of vehicle types; setting of life cycle curves; calculation of energy consumption factors of various models by using the vehicle energy consumption factor model based on vehicle weight; setting of various energy emission factors to calculate emissions ;Set the scenario; the seventh step is to calculate the contribution of energy saving and emission reduction in each scenario.

Description

Multi-scenario road traffic energy saving and emission reduction prediction method based on LEAP model technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a method for predicting and analyzing energy conservation and emission reduction in the transportation sector. Background technique The transportation sector is an important support for the national economy, and the energy consumption of the transportation sector in China accounts for 3% of the total social energy consumption. 12‑15%, second only to the manufacturing industry, and this proportion is generally increasing year by year. The transportation sector is also CO 2 and various large The main source of air pollutant emissions, the International Energy Agency's report shows that 23% of the world's CO 2 emissions from the transport sector, and my country's CO 2 Emissions have risen exponentially since the 1990s, putting a lot of pressure on the natural environment, so It is very important to ca...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The current energy consumption and emission prediction models are mainly divided into three categories. The first category is top-down models such as CGE model and MACRO model. Starting from the macro level, energy policy planning and economic benefit analysis are carried out, but this type of model is difficult to analyze the impact of technological progress on energy conservation and emission reduction benefits

The second type is the mixed energy model, which includes both the top-down macroeconomic model and the bottom-up energy demand model. The current representative ones are the NEMS model and the IIASA model of energy development in the United States. Class models involve a wide range of fields and require a large number of professionals to conduct complex research, so the cost is very high

The third type is bottom-up models such as LEAP, LMDI, and MARKAL models. This type of model starts from energy consumption and demand or energy technology to analyze the relationship between energy-environment-economy. The disadvantage is that the model requires Parameters are difficult to estimate accurately

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