Energy consumption prediction method and system based on three-parameter exponential smoothing

A technology of exponential smoothing and forecasting methods, which is applied in forecasting, data processing applications, special data processing applications, etc., and can solve problems such as difficult data collection, waste of residual information, and many influencing factors

Pending Publication Date: 2021-06-25
山东润一智能科技有限公司
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The above method has many influencing factors that need to be collected, difficult data collection, inaccurate prediction results and waste of residual information

Method used

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  • Energy consumption prediction method and system based on three-parameter exponential smoothing
  • Energy consumption prediction method and system based on three-parameter exponential smoothing
  • Energy consumption prediction method and system based on three-parameter exponential smoothing

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Embodiment 1

[0036] Such as figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a method for predicting energy consumption based on three-parameter exponential smoothing, which includes:

[0037] S101: Obtain the energy consumption data of the device in a historical time period;

[0038] S102: Fit the acquired energy consumption data using a seasonal exponential smoothing addition model and a seasonal summation autoregressive moving average model;

[0039] This model can be applied to a certain equipment in the hospital scene. By predicting its energy consumption, it can be judged whether the equipment is running normally. If a large inflection point of consumption is predicted, the equipment can be professionally inspected and repaired before the actual inflection point occurs. , to ensure the normal operation of the equipment. When it is applied to multiple devices, or to predict the energy consumption of a certain floor of the hospital, it can be targeted to prepare a storage battery for a ce...

Embodiment 2

[0092] This embodiment provides an energy consumption prediction system based on three-parameter exponential smoothing, including:

[0093] A historical energy consumption data acquisition module, which is used to acquire energy consumption data of equipment within a historical time period;

[0094] An energy consumption data fitting module, which is used to fit the acquired energy consumption data using a seasonal exponential smoothing addition model and a seasonal summation autoregressive moving average model;

[0095] An energy consumption prediction module, which is used to carry out weighted summation of the fitting results of the above two models and the set weighted value to obtain the predicted energy consumption value of the equipment; wherein, the sum of the weighted values ​​of the fitting results of the two models is equal to 1.

[0096] It should be noted that each module in the energy consumption prediction system based on three-parameter exponential smoothing i...

Embodiment 3

[0098] This embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, the steps in the energy consumption prediction method based on three-parameter exponential smoothing as described above are implemented.

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of energy consumption prediction, and provides an energy consumption prediction method and system based on three-parameter exponential smoothing. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring energy consumption data of equipment in a historical time period; fitting the obtained energy consumption data by using a seasonal exponential smoothing addition model and a seasonal summation autoregressive moving average model respectively; performing weighted summation on a fitting result of the two models and a set weighted value to obtain an energy consumption predicted value of the equipment, wherein the sum of weighted values of fitting results of the two models is equal to 1.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of energy consumption prediction, in particular to an energy consumption prediction method and system based on three-parameter exponential smoothing. Background technique [0002] The statements in this section merely provide background information related to the present invention and do not necessarily constitute prior art. [0003] Traditional energy consumption forecasts are generally calculated on a yearly basis, and even for recent energy forecasts, the forecast period is five to ten years. And the applied forecasting methods mainly include elastic coefficient method, input-output method, and regression analysis method, which are more traditional forecasting methods. The inventors have found that the energy consumption of some equipment is mostly monitoring of energy consumption rather than prediction of energy consumption. The above method has many influencing factors that need to be collected, difficult data ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06F30/20
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0639G06Q50/06G06F30/20
Inventor 刘利达
Owner 山东润一智能科技有限公司
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