Method, system and device for dynamically predicting domino accident in atmospheric storage tank area
A domino accident and dynamic prediction technology, applied in prediction, instrument, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve the problems of peripheral devices, building destructive damage, explosion of toluene storage tank, doubling of the severity of accident consequences, etc.
Pending Publication Date: 2021-10-22
NANJING UNIV OF TECH +1
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Problems solved by technology
[0003] Many chemical products are flammable and explosive. Once an accident occurs, it will cause devastating damage to peripheral devices and buildings, triggering a domino effect of tank farm accidents, and multiplying the severity of accident consequences.
For example: On June 2, 2013, the toluene storage tank exploded in the triphenyl tank farm of Sinopec Dalian Petrochemical Company due to illegal hot work, and the toluene in the tank flowed out to form a pool fire. Affected by the pool fire, the other three storage tanks in the tank farm Tanks exploded and caught fire one after another. The accident caused 4 deaths and a direct economic loss of 6.97 million yuan
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[0054] The present invention will be described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
[0055] The invention provides a method for dynamic prediction of domino accidents in an atmospheric storage tank area, which includes the following steps:
[0056] S1. Collect the basic data of the tank area to be evaluated. The determination process of the tank area to be evaluated is: based on the "Identification of Major Hazard Sources of Hazardous Chemicals" (GB18218-2018) or other hazard identification standards, to identify whether the enterprise's storage tank area constitutes a major hazard. Hazardous sources, select the storage tank farm that has constituted a major hazard source as the assessment object, and the adjacent tank farms that constitute a major hazard source storage tank farm should also be used as risk assessment objects, that is, the tank farm to be evaluated is determined.
[0057] The basic data include atmospheric data, storage tank ...
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The invention relates to the field of storage tank accident detection, and discloses a method, a system and a device for dynamically predicting domino accidents in an atmospheric storage tank area, and the key points of the technical scheme are as follows: collecting basic data of a to-be-evaluated tank area; determining an initial storage tank according to the basic data; determining an initial accident mode according to the basic data of the initial storage tank; determining an accident evolution mode according to the initial accident mode; calculating a physical effect for each accident evolution mode; judging whether the physical effect exceeds a threshold value or not, and if yes, determining an adjacent storage tank accident mode; constructing a static Bayesian network according to the adjacent storage tank accident mode; constructing a dynamic Bayesian network according to the static Bayesian network and fire extinguishing factors; and calculating a dynamic probability according to the dynamic Bayesian network, and determining a most probable expansion accident chain and a key storage tank.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of storage tank accident detection, more specifically, it relates to a dynamic prediction method, system and device for domino accidents in an atmospheric pressure storage tank area. Background technique [0002] The chemical industry is a pillar industry of the national economy, and its development requires a large amount of storage space (storage tanks). Since the founding of the People's Republic of China 70 years ago, China's crude oil production has soared from 120,000 tons to 200 million tons. In 2018, it consumed 648 million tons of crude oil and built 9 national-level oil reserve bases, the largest of which has a single tank volume of 150,000 cubic meters. Crude oil storage requires a large number of atmospheric storage tanks. In recent years, the centralized management of chemical companies has become an inevitable trend. By the end of 2018, the number of chemical parks in China had reached 676. The atmosph...
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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/27G06Q10/04G06F119/02
CPCG06F30/27G06Q10/04G06F2119/02
Inventor 张明广崔兴民钱城江潘文洁左亚雯吕似蕴张健吴新庆
Owner NANJING UNIV OF TECH