Wind speed multi-point synchronous prediction method coupling numerical weather forecast and measured data

Abstract

The invention discloses a wind speed multi-point synchronous prediction method coupling numerical weather forecast and actual measurement data, which comprises the following steps of: firstly, taking historical actual measurement gust wind speed data and numerical weather forecast data of different measurement points as model input, and taking actual measurement data of the measurement points at the current moment as output; comparing the importance degree of each input variable by adopting a feature selection method, and selecting the variable with higher degree as final input; then, establishing a gust wind speed prediction model based on Bayesian dynamic regression by adopting a moving window method, and evaluating a prediction result to obtain a high-precision wind speed prediction model; and finally, performing long-term and short-term prediction on the gust wind speed at the multiple measurement points by using the prediction model. According to the invention, on the basis of ensuring that the gust speed prediction result is accurate and reliable, the calculation efficiency is improved, and synchronous prediction of the gust speed of multiple measurement points is realized.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of wind speed prediction, in particular to a wind speed multi-point synchronous prediction method coupled with numerical weather forecast and measured data. Background technique [0002] Wind speed prediction has been widely used in many fields, such as: wind power generation scheduling, train speed regulation, and ensuring the safety of outdoor sports. Accurate prediction of wind speed is of great significance for improving wind energy utilization efficiency, reducing operating costs, and ensuring personnel safety. The rapid development of wind speed monitoring and numerical simulation technology provides an important research basis and means for wind speed prediction. However, the high randomness and strong volatility of wind speed greatly affect its prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. Therefore, the research on high-precision real-time wind speed prediction methods has attracted increasing attention...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] Purpose of the invention: In view of the problems of low prediction accuracy, time-consuming calculation, and difficulty in popularization and use of the current wind speed prediction method, the present invention provides a multi-point synchronous prediction method of gust wind speed coupled with numerical weather forecast and measured data, so as to effectively improve the asynchronous wind speed of gust wind. Long prediction accuracy, and realize simultaneous prediction of multiple measuring points

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