A road section
delay loss
estimation method based on a
ponding depth probability density and a
traffic flow probability density. The method comprises: S1, establishing a model for the relationship between the
ponding depth of a road section and distance; S2, on the basis of the maximum
ponding depth of the road section collected from a
historical record with a forecasted equivalent rainfall, formulating a probability density function for the maximum ponding depth; S3, on the basis of the
traffic flow of the road section collected from the
historical record with the forecasted equivalent rainfall, formulating a probability density function for the
traffic flow of the road section; S4, calculating free-flow vehicle speeds, and on the basis of the traffic flow of the road section, calculating the average vehicle speed of a vehicle, and calculating the average
travel time of the vehicle under a road-section ponding condition; and S5, calculating the average
delay time of the vehicle in a ponded road section, and on the basis of the average
delay time and the probability distribution of passenger occupancy, estimating the total
traffic delay loss of the road section. By means of taking the uncertainty based on the ponding depth, the traffic flow and the passenger occupancy into consideration, a scientific delay loss
estimation model is established, thereby providing an important basis for the management of
traffic congestion caused by urban flooding and ponding.