Terminal airspace air traffic delay prediction method under short-time weather influence

Abstract

The invention discloses a terminal airspace air traffic delay prediction method under short-time weather influence. According to the method, firstly, on the basis of classifying the precipitation grades, cloud clusters with different precipitation grades are subjected to contour extraction through a radar echo PPI (plane position indication) and RHI (range height indication) image recognition method; secondly, the traffic flow information of the corresponding time is matched with the space range of the precipitation cloud clusters; a three-dimensional WITI (weather influence traffic index) model under the condition of different precipitation grades is built; and finally, by combining the practical control rule, the WITI index, the control interval regulation and the delay time under the detour condition are subjected to index regression analysis to obtain a short-time delay time prediction model. By using the method, radar echo images are matched with terminal airspace structures; the influence degree of severe weather on the approach flight segment is judged; according to a detour path, the control allocation of the horizontal interval and the vertical interval is implemented; and the basis is provided for determining the air traffic delay level under the short-time weather influence in a terminal region.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a technology for predicting air traffic delays, in particular to a method for predicting air traffic delays in terminal airspace under the influence of short-term weather. Background technique [0002] Severe weather changes are the main cause of flight delays. For short-term weather changes in the terminal airspace, the capacity and operating efficiency of the terminal airspace will drop sharply, and the cost of flight delays will rise sharply, affecting the normal approach of flights, and may even cause flight safety accidents. [0003] Research on the relationship between weather and flight delays mainly revolves around the Weather Impacted Traffic Index (WITI). In 2001, Callaham et al. proposed the concept of WITI, which can reflect the degree of influence of weather on traffic flow; after that, Chatterji and Sridhar (2005), Sridhar and Swei (2006, 2007) extended the concept of WITI, and analyzed it through linear regressi...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The above-mentioned flight delay time prediction results under the weather influence analyze the flight delay mechanism under the weather influence and provide a reasonable prediction method, but most studies on the flight delay time prediction under the weather influence use the two-dimensional plane WITI to predict the delay , although Chen et al. took the cloud top height of the precipitation cloud as a limiting condition and initially expanded it into a three-dimensional WITI model, they did not consider the conditions of different precipitation levels and combined with different control rules to analyze the delay situation; in addition, the relationship between WITI and flight delays Most of the questions are aimed at the level of the national airspace network, without specific analysis of the complex weather and traffic flow information in the terminal airspace, especially the extent to which a specific arrival segment is affected by precipitation, the deployment measures implemented by the controller, and the Analysis of diversion strategies is still insufficient

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