Strong convection strong wind approaching prediction method and system based on upstream live wind speed

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of strong wind prediction manufacturing, and particularly provides a strong convection strong wind approaching prediction method and system based on an upstream live wind speed, and the method comprises the steps: calculating an optical flow field (v) of combined reflectivity radar echoes under different time dimensions through an optical flow method based on continuous multi-scene radar observation; radar echo observation of 6 min is mapped to radar observation of 10 min, optical flow fields of different time dimensions are fused through dynamic weights, and finally radar echo extrapolation of the next 2 h and 10 min interval is obtained. And through an XGBOOST-CNN algorithm, real-time radar observation at a 10-min interval after mapping and ground 10-min-level strong wind real-time station monitoring are carried out, topographic information and underlying surface information are fused, a small sample echo feature-wind speed inversion model based on a machine learning technology is established, and a real-time wind speed inversion model is obtained. The invention innovatively provides a lattice nowcasting technology for strong convection wind. And thunderstorm gale products can be provided for 10 minutes in future 2 hours.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of gale forecasting, and more specifically, to a method and system for near-prediction of strong convective gale based on actual upstream wind speed. Background technique [0002] Severe convective phenomena will trigger a series of disaster phenomena, including short-term strong winds. For this kind of windy situation, the only effective means of observation is ground station observation. But the problem is that when the ground station observes it, the gale event has already occurred, and early warning cannot be achieved. This kind of strong convective wind phenomenon is accompanied by the movement of strong convective cloud clusters, and the current monitoring methods for strong convective cloud clusters are diverse. The most common one is based on Doppler weather radar, but the intensity of radar echoes is not related to wind speed. It is not a simple linear relationship, and the formation proce...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] In recent years, with the advancement of science and technology, artificial intelligence, as a black box technology based on big data statistics, has begun to develop rapidly in the computer field, and has gradually spread to all walks of life. In the impending forecast, it has achieved a lot of results, but the current short-term forecasting technology for radar pays more attention to the radar echo itself or precipitation, and rarely involves short-term gale weather phenomena

Images