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Charging pile profit prediction algorithm and profit probability prediction algorithm

A prediction algorithm and probabilistic prediction technology, applied in prediction, electric vehicle charging technology, calculation, etc., can solve the problems of uncontrollable operation risk of charging pile and unreasonable prediction algorithm, so as to avoid losses, realize revenue, and prevent losses. Effect

Pending Publication Date: 2022-05-31
广州万城万充新能源科技有限公司
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to at least partially solve the problems in the background technology that the existing charging pile operation risks cannot be controlled, and the prediction algorithm is unreasonable, etc.

Method used

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  • Charging pile profit prediction algorithm and profit probability prediction algorithm
  • Charging pile profit prediction algorithm and profit probability prediction algorithm
  • Charging pile profit prediction algorithm and profit probability prediction algorithm

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0067] The charging pile profit forecasting algorithm is characterized in that it has,

[0068] Charging pile characteristic data CH i ;

[0069] Revenue y of the charging pile at time t;

[0070] Among them, CH i Expressed as,

[0071]

[0072] Among them, C i It is a convenient parameter, which is used to indicate the convenience of the area where the charging pile is located for the user;

[0073] Among them, F i It is a fast charging parameter, which is used to indicate the support of the charging pile for fast charging;

[0074] Among them, E i It is a fee parameter, which is used to indicate the user's acceptance of the current charging scheme of the charging pile;

[0075] Among them, W i It is a weather parameter, which is used to indicate the friendliness of the weather in the area where the charging pile is located to the charging behavior;

[0076] Among them, T i It is a temperature parameter, which is used to indicate the friendliness of the ambient ...

Embodiment 2

[0086] Characteristic data CH i ,Expressed as,

[0087] CH i ={C i , F i ,E i ,W i , T i} (3).

[0088] Equation (2) changes to,

[0089] ln(y)=μ 0 +μ 1 *C i +μ 2 *F i +μ 3 *E i +μ 4 *W i +μ 5 *T i (4)

[0090] Among them, the logarithmic function ln() is used to constrain the value range of y.

[0091] In this embodiment, by introducing a logarithmic function to constrain the value range of y, the potential factors affecting charging pile income are quantified, so that risk prediction can be performed through a regression model, and the logarithmic function is used to constrain according to relevant data proofs After the function description, the accuracy can be increased by 1%-1.5%, and the risk prediction accuracy can reach 80%.

Embodiment 3

[0093] The profit probability prediction algorithm is characterized in that,

[0094] The charging pile profit prediction algorithm described in any one of claims 1-3;

[0095] The loss risk of the charging pile is defined as p, and the possibility of making a profit for the charging pile is 1-p, describing the charging pile CH i Revenue situation y at time t, namely:

[0096]

[0097] Formula (4) is rewritten as:

[0098]

[0099] According to the formula (6), the loss risk p of the charging pile is obtained as:

[0100]

[0101] In this embodiment, the present invention expresses the loss risk p in the form of a percentage as the probability that a loss will occur and the probability that a profit will be realized. During the training process of the model, the regression model μ is obtained i The parameter value, then the calculation of the loss risk p of the charging pile can be completed. According to the predicted loss risk p, timely adjust the operation str...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a charging pile profit prediction algorithm, which is characterized in that charging pile characteristic data comprises a convenient parameter, a fast charging parameter, a cost parameter, a weather parameter and a temperature parameter. Wherein the convenience parameter is used for representing the convenience degree of the area where the charging pile is located for the user; the fast charging parameter represents the supportability of the charging pile to fast charging; the cost parameter represents the acceptance of the user on the current charging scheme of the charging pile; the weather parameter represents a friendly condition of weather of an area where the charging pile is located to the charging behavior; the temperature parameter represents the friendly condition of the environment temperature of the charging pile to the charging behavior; according to the charging pile profit prediction algorithm and the profit probability prediction algorithm, analysis is carried out based on the regression model, and compared with the scheme in the prior art, more possibly related factors are considered instead of only depending on simple income and expenditure data analysis. According to the electric vehicle loss prediction scheme, enterprises can be effectively helped to prevent loss, and revenue is achieved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of vehicle charging operation management, and relates to a charging pile operation risk assessment technology, in particular to a regression model-based loss risk prediction system for electric vehicle charging piles. Background technique [0002] With the popularization of electric vehicles, electric charging piles are also deployed in various places and places in the city. However, compared with traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, the number of electric vehicles in the market is still relatively high. Therefore, the charging cost of electric vehicles is still relatively high at present, and for charging pile operators, the deployment of charging piles not only consumes a lot of manpower and material resources, according to relevant data, the average cost of an ordinary pile is 5,000-2 Ten thousand yuan, and the cost of a fast charging pile generally exceeds 100,000 yuan. [0003] In addition ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0635G06Q50/06Y02T90/12
Inventor 彭龙锋林漫丰郑文焕王双衔粱德威
Owner 广州万城万充新能源科技有限公司
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