The application discloses a geothermal
caprock evaluation modeling method and belongs to the technical field of geothermal resource exploration. In view of the problems that existing
caprock evaluation standards are uneven, subjective and lack of quantitative
coupling of structural factors and calibration of measured data, the application firstly acquires
caprock physical properties and structural data; secondly, a single-factor evaluation model based on physical mechanism is constructed for
lithology, thickness, permeability and
thermal conductivity; on this basis, a structure-mechanical-integrity
coupling model is constructed, which includes basic structure scores,
fracture risk indexes and plastic self-repairing capacity factors; finally, by using
observation data such as historical breakthrough pressure and leakage events, key parameters in the above model are calibrated through regression and Bayesian methods. The method forms a unified and portable caprock evaluation basic
model system, reduces subjectivity, and improves the stability and
interpretability of the evaluation results.