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Method for early warning of marine disasters

A disaster and marine technology, applied in the field of marine environment, can solve problems such as the reduction of the accuracy of forecast results, and achieve the effects of fast forecast speed, high reliability and strong fault tolerance.

Inactive Publication Date: 2009-10-28
OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTR RES INST SHANDONG ACAD OF SCI
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

This reason can also lead to a decrease in the accuracy of the forecast results.

Method used

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  • Method for early warning of marine disasters
  • Method for early warning of marine disasters
  • Method for early warning of marine disasters

Examples

Experimental program
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Effect test

example 1

[0087] Assuming that an event is represented by I5, and the current station corresponding to it is StationA, the conditions corresponding to the event I5 are set as follows:

[0088] Set the relevant station to be Station B, the relevant historical station to be Station C, the data attribute to be flow velocity, the direction to be greater than the first boundary, the first boundary to be 23, the trend to be larger, and the event category to be set If it is normal, the comparison method is set to the historical time period in the interval change, the historical time period is set to "this time in the historical day", the depth is set to 3, and the forward time is set to 0 or empty;

[0089] Then, the above conditions express the following meanings:

[0090] The condition of event I5 occurring at Station A is that the flow velocity of Station B at the current time is greater than the average of the flow velocity of Station C at the three current moments yesterday, the day befor...

example 2

[0092] Assuming that an event is represented by I6, and the current station corresponding to it is Station D, the conditions corresponding to the event I5 are set as follows:

[0093] Set the relevant station as Station E, the relevant historical station as Station F, the data attribute as water temperature, the comparison method as a specific time period in the interval change, and the two endpoints in the specific time period as 2008 At 3 o'clock on May 3 and 7 o'clock on May 3, 2008, the direction is set to be greater than the first boundary, the first boundary is set to 5, the trend is set to become larger, the event category is set to normal, forward time is set to 4;

[0094] Then, the above conditions express the following meanings:

[0095] The condition of event I6 occurring at Station E is that the water temperature at Station E 4 hours before the current time is higher than the average water temperature at Station F from 3:00 on May 3, 2008 to 7:00 on May 3, 2008 ...

example 3

[0097] Assuming that an event is represented by I7, and its corresponding current station is Station G, the conditions corresponding to the event I7 are set as follows:

[0098] Set the related station Station H, set the related historical station as Station I, set the data attribute as flow direction, and set the comparison method as interval comparison. The two time endpoints of Station H in this interval comparison are 0 and 2, and Station I Set the two time endpoints to 2 and 4, set the direction to be greater than the first boundary, set the first boundary to 20, set the trend to become larger, set the event category to normal, and set the forward time to 0 or vacant;

[0099] Then, the meanings expressed by the above condition settings are as follows:

[0100] The condition of event I7 occurring at Station G is that the average value of the flow direction in the period from the current time minus 0 to the current time minus 2 in Station H is greater than the flow direct...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for early warning of marine disasters. The method comprises the followings steps of: a, acquiring monitoring data; b, analyzing the monitoring data to obtain an event formed by the data; and c, according to the event and a statistical forecast model, forecasting a disaster event. Because the method adopts the statistical model to forecast, the errors caused by changes of individual environmental factors do not occur; moreover, the method also has the advantages of strong fault tolerance and high reliability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of marine environment, in particular to a marine disaster early warning method. Background technique [0002] At present, the method used for marine disaster prediction basically adopts the numerical prediction method. It is a method of making marine disaster forecasts by using large and fast electronic computers to solve equations describing marine meteorological movements. The calculation of its prediction process is huge, time-consuming and consumes more resources. [0003] In numerical forecasting, due to the fact that some small-scale or close to small-scale movements cannot be accurately reflected in the forecasting model, and the determination of parameters in the model of the numerical forecasting method lacks an objective and accurate method, which leads to the accuracy of the forecasting results reduced sex. [0004] In addition, although under suitable conditions, it can be proved that the numerical solu...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08B31/00G08B21/10G01V1/38
CPCY02A50/00
Inventor 程岩杜立彬孙继昌张颖颖任国兴徐珊珊尤小华侯广利刘岩高杨张颖汤永佐石小梅朱苹
Owner OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTR RES INST SHANDONG ACAD OF SCI