Establishing method of uncertainty mid-term and long-term hydrological forecasting model
A hydrological forecasting and uncertainty technology, which is applied in biological neural network models, open-air water source surveys, complex mathematical operations, etc., can solve problems such as unexplainable calculation results, single definite value of forecast results, failure to achieve forecasting purposes, etc., to achieve forecasting The effect of objective results, improved prediction results, and reduced blindness
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[0038] Analyzing the shortcomings of the current mid- and long-term hydrological simulation prediction methods, the author believes that there are two main deficiencies: one is insufficient understanding of the composition structure and change characteristics of hydrological time series, and there is a certain degree of blindness in the actual simulation process; the other is that Corresponding targeted simulation predictions have not been made in combination with the specific composition structure and change characteristics of the hydrological series.
[0039] According to the theory of stochastic hydrology, hydrological time series are mainly divided into two parts: deterministic components and random components. The deterministic components are formed based on certain physical mechanisms and have deterministic changing rules, which reflect the main changing characteristics of the sequence (such as trend , jump, period, etc.); the random component has the characteristics of r...
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